Election Search
Forecast output
Government-linked Monte Carlo

Pipeline forecast outputs

2026 US House forecast

Government rows link to the exact official source text when the source supports it; statistical rows stay labeled separately.

degraded
Degraded

Forecast-output takeaway: 243.8 expected Democratic seats; House-control probability 83.6%.

Sources

Based on House forecast pipeline.

Freshness

27 evidence item(s) are stale, old, unknown, or missing timestamps.

Reliability

Premium analysis is degraded because model-generated analysis is unavailable; deterministic forecast output sections remain available.

degraded
AI blocked
Deterministic sections available
  • Expected Democratic seats: 243.8 seats
  • Democratic House-control probability: 83.6%
  • 80% seat range: 208-276 seats
  • Forecast output
Major caveats
  • Model-generated analysis is unavailable, so no AI text is used as evidence.
  • Inputs are limited to records available on or before 2026-05-05.
  • Some evidence has stale, missing, or unknown freshness labels.

Key Evidence

Highest-signal items first, with source and freshness labels.

4 visible

Expected Democratic seats

243.8 seats

FRESH

Seat ranges are wide because election errors are partly shared across districts, so the chamber can swing together.

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Democratic House-control probability

83.6%

FRESH

Probability from the pipeline Monte Carlo seat simulation.

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

80% seat range

208-276 seats

FRESH

Seat ranges are wide because election errors are partly shared across districts, so the chamber can swing together.

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

National generic-ballot margin

D +4.7 pts

STALE

Based on 436 generic-ballot polls in the forecast path.

FILE
medium confidence
STALE

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

This data is 23 days old.

National swing scenario

Apply a uniform national margin shift to the generated House forecast.

Forecast sensitivity
Even
R +8EvenD +8

Baseline margin

D +4.7

Adjusted margin

D +4.7

Scenario rating

Lean Democratic

Democratic share

52.4%

Republican share

47.6%

Democratic seats

244

+0.15130287353343874 from baseline.

  • Scenario math uses the generated national_sensitivity.csv slope.
  • It is a quick sensitivity view, not a separate model refit.
FILE
medium confidence
STALE

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

This data is 23 days old.

Forecast path

Expected Democratic seats by forecast snapshot date.

Forecast output

Expected Democratic seats

FILE
medium confidence
STALE

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-03-29T00:00:00.000Z.

This data is 60 days old.

Deep Details

Tables, diagnostics, source metadata, and blocked model sections are collapsed by default.

DetailsDetailed tables and supporting deterministic context.
degraded

Most competitive districts

District-level probabilities from district_probabilities.csv.

Forecast output

CA-48

California

Toss-up

Value

45.7%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

CA-40

California

Toss-up

Value

55.4%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

NY-02

New York

Toss-up

Value

43.4%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

MT-01

Montana

Toss-up

Value

57.5%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

IA-03

Iowa

Toss-up

Value

58.1%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

NJ-07

New Jersey

Toss-up

Value

58.6%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

AZ-02

Arizona

Toss-up

Value

41.3%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

CA-03

California

Toss-up

Value

59.0%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

NY-21

New York

Toss-up

Value

40.8%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

CO-03

Colorado

Toss-up

Value

60.1%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

WI-03

Wisconsin

Toss-up

Value

60.5%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

AZ-06

Arizona

Toss-up

Value

60.5%

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

NameLocationStatusMetricSource
CA-48California
Toss-up
45.7%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

CA-40California
Toss-up
55.4%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

NY-02New York
Toss-up
43.4%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

MT-01Montana
Toss-up
57.5%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

IA-03Iowa
Toss-up
58.1%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

NJ-07New Jersey
Toss-up
58.6%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

AZ-02Arizona
Toss-up
41.3%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

CA-03California
Toss-up
59.0%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

NY-21New York
Toss-up
40.8%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

CO-03Colorado
Toss-up
60.1%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

WI-03Wisconsin
Toss-up
60.5%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

AZ-06Arizona
Toss-up
60.5%
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

State summaries

State-level aggregation from state_summaries.csv.

Forecast output

Massachusetts

9 districts

National signal

Value

8.5 seats

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Vermont

1 districts

National signal

Value

0.9 seats

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Hawaii

2 districts

National signal

Value

1.9 seats

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Maryland

8 districts

National signal

Value

6.9 seats

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

California

52 districts

National signal

Value

44.1 seats

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

New York

26 districts

National signal

Value

21.0 seats

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Rhode Island

2 districts

National signal

Value

1.9 seats

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Connecticut

5 districts

National signal

Value

4.6 seats

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Delaware

1 districts

National signal

Value

0.9 seats

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

South Dakota

1 districts

National signal

Value

0.1 seats

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

NameLocationStatusMetricSource
Massachusetts9 districts
National signal
8.5 seats
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Vermont1 districts
National signal
0.9 seats
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Hawaii2 districts
National signal
1.9 seats
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Maryland8 districts
National signal
6.9 seats
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

California52 districts
National signal
44.1 seats
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

New York26 districts
National signal
21.0 seats
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Rhode Island2 districts
National signal
1.9 seats
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Connecticut5 districts
National signal
4.6 seats
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Delaware1 districts
National signal
0.9 seats
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

South Dakota1 districts
National signal
0.1 seats
FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

Why this matters

Government-linked output

National generic-ballot polling is moving the whole map a bit, while district history still sets the baseline seats.

Model and polling context

Government-linked output

Production model

experimental_midterm_prior

selected by lowest log_loss (0.259) among eligible models with direct_poll_count=0

FILE
medium confidence
FRESH

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

National poll count

436

Usable national generic-ballot observations.

FILE
medium confidence
STALE

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

This data is 23 days old.

Direct House district polls

0

District-level House polls accepted by the pipeline.

FILE
low confidence
STALE

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

This data is 23 days old.

States with direct House polling

0

Confidence is limited because 50 states do not have direct House polling yet.

FILE
low confidence
STALE

Source: House forecast pipeline. Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z.

This data is 23 days old.

Data DiagnosticsMap placeholder, source freshness, and cache/source caveats.
Details

Data Freshness

Sample data

Last updated: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

Sources

  • House forecast pipeline (FILE)

Limits

  • No live API calls are used in this prototype.
  • Missing values render as unavailable, never zero.
  • 0 metric(s) are explicitly marked missing.
  • 4 metric(s) carry low or missing confidence.
  • This data is 23 days old.
  • This data is 23 days old.
  • This data is 23 days old.
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Grounded preview

Based only on this dashboard, 2026 US House forecast should be read with uncertainty. Expected Democratic seats: 243.84869712646656 from House forecast pipeline. Some freshness information is stale, old, expired, unknown, or missing. Sources: House forecast pipeline.

Answers will be limited to displayed dashboard data and cited sources; missing, stale, or sample data will be named.

Provider StatusProvider, freshness, and cache status metadata.
ready

FORECAST_OUTPUTS

Available

DEGRADED
Last attempt
2026-05-22T18:13:48.000Z
Last success
2026-05-22T18:13:48.000Z
Latency
Unavailable
Freshness
FRESH
Cache
Not cached
  • 27 metric(s) have stale, unknown, or missing freshness.

OPENAI

Model analysis unavailable

UNAVAILABLE
Last attempt
2026-05-22T18:13:48.000Z
Last success
Unavailable
Latency
Unavailable
Freshness
UNKNOWN
Cache
Not cached
  • Deterministic dashboard sections remain available; no model text is generated.

INTERNAL_CACHE

No Premium cache

UNAVAILABLE
Last attempt
2026-05-22T18:13:48.000Z
Last success
Unavailable
Latency
Unavailable
Freshness
UNKNOWN
Cache
Not cached
  • The route renders generated forecast outputs rather than cached provider data.
Cache summary

BYPASS; cached items: 0; stale items: 27.