83.9% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the 218 · majority line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 84 seats to 131 seats | 0.0% |
| 132 seats to 153 seats | 0.3% |
| 154 seats to 175 seats | 1.2% |
| 176 seats to 197 seats | 4.2% |
| 198 seats to 217 seats | 10.3% |
| 218 seats to 237 seats | 22.5% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 238 seats to 257 seats | 30.2% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 258 seats to 277 seats | 20.9% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 278 seats to 297 seats | 8.1% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 298 seats to 317 seats | 2.0% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 318 seats to 337 seats | 0.3% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 338 seats to 383 seats | 0.0% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
Live model read · 2026 US House forecast
Each bar = one simulated outcome · teal = the 83.9% of outcomes where Democrats win · dashed line = 218 seats for a majority
Since the Jun 29, 2026 run: expected seats unchanged · win chance unchanged.MethodologyVerify the mathGenerate worksheetUpdated Jul 12, 2026
Apply a uniform national margin shift to the generated House forecast.
At Even uniform swing, adjusted national margin D +5.2 (Lean Democratic), 244 seats.
50 states with model data · click a state to open its forecast
Each tile shows the model's average chance a Democrat wins that state's House districts — click a tile and the same number appears with its receipt link. Exact file: state summaries, one row per state.