83.2% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the 218 · majority line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 79 seats to 129 seats | 0.1% |
| 130 seats to 152 seats | 0.3% |
| 153 seats to 175 seats | 1.4% |
| 176 seats to 198 seats | 4.9% |
| 199 seats to 217 seats | 10.2% |
| 218 seats to 237 seats | 21.7% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 238 seats to 257 seats | 28.3% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 258 seats to 277 seats | 21.0% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 278 seats to 297 seats | 9.0% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 298 seats to 317 seats | 2.6% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 318 seats to 337 seats | 0.5% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 338 seats to 388 seats | 0.1% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
Live model read · 2026 US House forecast
Each bar = one simulated outcome · teal = the 83.2% of outcomes where Democrats win · dashed line = 218 seats for a majority
Since the Aug 24, 2026 run: expected seats -0.4 · win chance -0.5 pts.MethodologyVerify the mathStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Aug 26, 2026
Apply a uniform national margin shift to the generated House forecast.
At Even uniform swing, adjusted national margin D +5.5 (Lean Democratic), 245 seats.
50 states with model data · click a state to open its forecast
Each tile shows the model's average chance a Democrat wins that state's House districts — select the state code or tile background for its forecast, or its underlined percentage for the exact PDF receipt. Exact file: state summaries, one row per state.