Published · Updates are manual.
83.1% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the 218 · majority line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 80 seats to 129 seats | 0.1% |
| 130 seats to 151 seats | 0.3% |
| 152 seats to 173 seats | 1.2% |
| 174 seats to 195 seats | 4.1% |
| 196 seats to 217 seats | 11.2% |
| 218 seats to 237 seats | 21.8% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 238 seats to 257 seats | 28.2% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 258 seats to 277 seats | 21.0% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 278 seats to 297 seats | 9.0% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 298 seats to 317 seats | 2.6% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 318 seats to 337 seats | 0.5% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
| 338 seats to 388 seats | 0.1% (at or beyond 218 · majority) |
Published model read · 2026 US House forecast
Each bar = one simulated outcome · teal = outcomes where Democrats win · dashed line = 218 seats for a majority
Since the Aug 24, 2026 run: expected seats +0.1 · win chance +0.1 pts.MethodologyInternal audit sheetVerify the mathStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026
Apply a uniform national margin shift to the generated House forecast.
At Even uniform swing, adjusted national margin D +5.6 (Lean Democratic), 244 seats.
50 states with model data · click a state to open its forecast
Each tile shows the model's average chance a Democrat wins that state's House districts — select the state code or tile background for its forecast, or its underlined percentage for the exact PDF receipt. Exact file: state summaries, one row per state.