Public Monte Carlo forecast
A live forecast of the 2026 US House, built only from official election records and simulated thousands of times. Free and open — no account, no email, no paywall — and every number on the page links to the exact source line it came from.
Live · 2026 US House forecast
83.9% is the chance Democrats win control — not their share of seats.
Each bar = one simulated outcome · teal = the 83.9% of outcomes where Democrats win · slate = the outcomes where they fall short · dashed line = 218 of the House's 435 seats, the majority