Published · Updates are manual.
The 2026 House · Open election research
Explore the forecast, inspect a district, and follow the records behind the numbers. Published methods, original documents, and an audit trail that keeps the gaps visible.
Published run · 2026 US House forecast
83.1% is the chance Democrats win control — not their share of seats.
Each bar = one simulated outcome · teal = the 83.1% of outcomes where Democrats win · slate = the outcomes where they fall short · dashed line = 218 of the House's 435 seats, the majority