1 · Blend
Prior House results, district fundamentals, the national environment, and direct polling where it exists are blended into one margin per district.
layered margin blendMethodologyUpdated Jul 12, 2026
243.9 seats expected; 80% of simulations land between 208 and 278 seats.Open forecast
Prior House results, district fundamentals, the national environment, and direct polling where it exists are blended into one margin per district.
layered margin blendThe House is simulated thousands of times. Each simulated election is a full 435-race map with national, state, and district errors moving together; Democratic seats are counted against the 218-seat majority line.
Monte Carlo simulationmajority = 218 seatsFinal probabilities are recalibrated against past cycles and padded so the published ranges stay honest about real-world error. Where a race's data stopped, the last winner stands in.
Platt scalinguncertainty ×1.05freeze: prior cycle winner proxyBuilt from 7 data feeds · 11,919 records passed checks · State-certified election results · FEC campaign finance disclosure · Congressional district boundaries · Sources
Forecasts are probabilistic estimates, not predictions.