Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -15.9 pts to -12.9 pts | 1.2% |
| -9.9 pts to -6.9 pts | 3.5% |
| -3.9 pts to -0.9 pts | 7.9% |
| 2.1 pts to 5.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.1 pts to 11.1 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 14.1 pts to 17.1 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.1 pts to 23.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.1 pts to 29.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.0 pts to 35.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 38.0 pts to 41.0 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.0 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NY-17 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 73.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +6.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +14.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.4 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026