95.2% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -12.6 pts to -8.6 pts | 1.2% |
| -4.5 pts to -0.4 pts | 3.5% |
| 3.7 pts to 7.8 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 11.9 pts to 16.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.1 pts to 24.2 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 28.3 pts to 32.3 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.4 pts to 40.5 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 44.6 pts to 48.7 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.8 pts to 56.9 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 61.0 pts to 65.1 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 69.2 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Live model read · CA-45 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 83.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
D +28.3 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±21.0 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathGenerate worksheetUpdated Jul 12, 2026