45.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -51.1 pts to -46.2 pts | 1.2% |
| -41.2 pts to -36.2 pts | 3.5% |
| -31.3 pts to -26.3 pts | 7.9% |
| -21.4 pts to -16.4 pts | 13.7% |
| -11.4 pts to -6.5 pts | 18.6% |
| -1.5 pts | 10.1% |
| 3.5 pts to 8.4 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 13.4 pts to 18.3 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.3 pts to 28.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 33.2 pts to 38.2 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.2 pts to 48.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Live model read · ME-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 50.5% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
R +1.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±25.4 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathGenerate worksheetUpdated Jul 12, 2026