Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 6.6 seats |
| Average district win probability | 60.1% |
| Average district margin | D +22.6 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.8 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 11 |
| Expected dem seats | 6.608220497830782 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.6007473179846166 |
| Pre poll state margin | 19.769778280662795 |
| Final state margin | 22.556006415716034 |
| Polling effect | 2.7862281350532414 |
| Polling uncertainty | 80.02042357740442 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 51 |
| State environment shift | -1.0915445563868077e-06 |
| State environment poll margin | 8.911700552425494 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.4439931151038068 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -0.5926067766375476 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.5315203272698317 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 8.459727011200536 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8259737009515997 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 55.825010896173865 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8168889600536862 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 53.77821039780862 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.42508195691535094 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -2.590694454579137 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.3430087537322609 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -11.970761579855909 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6230167397590431 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 23.986407047003272 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8357924976856689 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 58.271082735453106 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.3042351533175169 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -17.15834684508781 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6434038700876388 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 26.53982491753143 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8153054229543784 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 53.56821722386594 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |