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Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 15.1 seats |
| Average district win probability | 39.9% |
| Average district margin | D +1.2 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.9 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 38 |
| Expected dem seats | 15.147569096180732 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.39862023937317714 |
| Pre poll state margin | -1.7380284696267934 |
| Final state margin | 1.196369110903245 |
| Polling effect | 2.9343975805300375 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.0337727872307787 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 6 |
| Direct house poll count | 6 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06797999577957202 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -30.140877785803994 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09821295901463938 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -22.507221657872925 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.11981674192150725 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -19.174369976904096 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08697506875671113 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -24.510732515809735 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.10713405470294292 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -21.161054671104623 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09740912260336448 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -23.42408772627836 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9332824891212487 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 40.2045681171319 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.14062700727035216 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -17.780241743094066 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709829753383572 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 57.73760150536928 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.15722037128237715 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -15.309560331307182 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06777703583047597 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -30.32791532182224 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.11153117257308456 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.45968900387733 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06807331112284613 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -30.056971670044078 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08591953919958226 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -24.816329306134932 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.22806120528863533 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -10.044259480801827 |
| Direct house poll count | 4 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.922839165792479 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 37.40782112526037 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09492404581440159 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -23.065209502424942 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9565146380366666 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 48.242439533601136 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08893043313686298 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -23.635274210523455 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709874642165559 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 58.73537479779596 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.17583728455919062 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.301330895914958 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.18683622168014702 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -12.361515410362522 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.214953207276098 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -11.761864254893869 |
| Direct house poll count | 2 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.14376036167916129 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -16.336846823031006 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06777703583047597 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -30.32791532182224 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.1097762853511243 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -21.607076807610603 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09652141778723106 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -22.615541794767843 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8512539217369555 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 22.164827252290387 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.949741104350146 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 45.837604269373145 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709830660630969 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 57.76108829248318 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.10399983331613014 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -22.430614315113075 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9362790381331593 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 40.05870936740926 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.958090220417996 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 47.453782862399564 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8223435836194116 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 17.910214204496466 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.95515216131195 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 46.33644930820288 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08393217595511741 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -25.115105943857245 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9662938583136378 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 50.927132476516306 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.17883952199703945 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.043980426829378 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |