Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 1.7 seats |
| Average district win probability | 19.3% |
| Average district margin | R +15.8 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.6 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 9 |
| Expected dem seats | 1.7343590452677022 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.19270656058530025 |
| Pre poll state margin | -18.445482366011284 |
| Final state margin | -15.83486730702905 |
| Polling effect | 2.6106150589822317 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.6796876800295426 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06714063051762206 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -30.347807751005746 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08306555851460654 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -26.718027963322577 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08184743546145162 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -27.05221347004256 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.07596695330739653 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -28.375254406428688 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.16022087062613313 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -15.164039023057489 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09863162041295515 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -19.18978909151529 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.12958603676611055 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -19.196587991869283 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.07340532925115972 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -28.95359219734822 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.964494610410267 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 52.48350613132841 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |