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Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 9.6 seats |
| Average district win probability | 56.6% |
| Average district margin | D +12.8 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.7 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 17 |
| Expected dem seats | 9.62353540595111 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.5660903179971241 |
| Pre poll state margin | 10.040638318423373 |
| Final state margin | 12.752461828077104 |
| Polling effect | 2.7118235096537333 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.8033687782656918 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 4 |
| Direct house poll count | 4 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.3499789784075831 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -3.7863307587915136 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9623181897481026 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 54.80884469290173 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709926366732222 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 62.22386033463027 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9197833180101416 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 40.51684858436742 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9500399564470082 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 49.54984723893591 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8949511503097716 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 34.427108486107386 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7245059453986566 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 8.68301329002042 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.708783815812382 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 7.995507037674127 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09823995891439435 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -19.71149620716506 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6907315341603064 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 7.016234470747625 |
| Direct house poll count | 4 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.1489729720983468 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.593676573569411 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8970762975835207 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 34.38623760446194 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.08898304088786779 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -21.611955323448132 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.11067311382812231 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -18.134347728683878 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09573988417156959 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.152304168960995 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.1435531607126031 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.914616497545502 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8682114527875109 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 28.08907659562845 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |