Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 4.7 seats |
| Average district win probability | 78.2% |
| Average district margin | D +30.9 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.0 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 6 |
| Expected dem seats | 4.692305902797627 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.7820509837996045 |
| Pre poll state margin | 27.955758858208885 |
| Final state margin | 30.946575001990016 |
| Polling effect | 2.99081614378113 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.924311672323354 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.961682283628992 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 56.191496733713755 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.19873628310977287 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -12.165602865907431 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9638962551623397 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 57.41937932637923 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8707644099046813 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 30.77313241478795 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8345828883507955 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 24.577098452702266 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8626437826410457 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 28.883945950264334 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |