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Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 5.9 seats |
| Average district win probability | 39.2% |
| Average district margin | D +1.9 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.6 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 15 |
| Expected dem seats | 5.876832663418625 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.39178884422790833 |
| Pre poll state margin | -0.7000205363612364 |
| Final state margin | 1.9370021289656412 |
| Polling effect | 2.6370226653268767 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.6966785155353579 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8768081398479814 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 30.251021285918124 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.07727971546965293 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -22.52502124241335 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9613755402022479 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 54.89514637621761 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.0910926347602189 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.09472780849053 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09543680536387003 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -19.34174387890006 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09896244312713401 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -18.925155647328435 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.22933382051854478 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -8.567105778363393 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.1298352080076235 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -15.358480597915555 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8146356726580465 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 21.085243659872035 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.18643330087798765 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -11.144418280635275 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9684141116916136 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 58.254410769186215 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09091215463189073 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -20.12497291350802 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8270572051040702 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 21.970534806258605 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.12553939398491673 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -15.527420979493154 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.3037165171728258 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -5.7922778359202045 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |