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Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 20.8 seats |
| Average district win probability | 80.2% |
| Average district margin | D +39.6 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.0 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 26 |
| Expected dem seats | 20.84154930058223 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.8015980500223935 |
| Pre poll state margin | 36.5606456795393 |
| Final state margin | 39.55923784065168 |
| Polling effect | 2.998592161112377 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.066166029560446 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 2 |
| Direct house poll count | 2 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.629056032861259 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6281569029425835 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 9.13775702079927 |
| Direct house poll count | 2 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.4305669497028699 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 1.2142643270342202 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8402026738938008 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 30.673791024257916 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8308337798785649 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 30.000214968992335 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9639644700979435 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 63.19636079722268 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9359261899700666 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 52.83886769698632 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9599829839780801 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 60.28731712196262 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9660403958502886 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 63.933909844082784 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9651718444761743 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 63.99019859930848 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9697085818085905 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 65.99477898434039 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.3217812310226062 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -3.6148092215431067 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9686218697607485 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 64.00560309570604 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9694836347444217 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 65.95871502760836 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9590389464872242 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 61.06945615666389 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9677569621336826 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 65.05043043714261 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.962486154974452 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 61.75944052618925 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7333061261099715 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 14.058800222874723 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9043608022019434 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 42.17397431608751 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8302722626903376 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 30.21356540353587 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9269840444617521 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 48.70608655187587 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.4758162331579011 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 5.604084700313191 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8769143239019331 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 36.656468760683175 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.2863945584700962 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -5.4280889639245675 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.2870042053628097 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -5.424612563141439 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9310915434110751 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 49.46752266922868 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9496816290923127 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 57.01608635265655 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |