Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 2.7 seats |
| Average district win probability | 67.2% |
| Average district margin | D +14.1 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.2 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 4 |
| Expected dem seats | 2.689602352255675 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.6724005880639188 |
| Pre poll state margin | 10.863907364218466 |
| Final state margin | 14.060411023950923 |
| Polling effect | 3.1965036597324565 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.056652434432501 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8681065339906879 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 26.589286621492057 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.12057258958298653 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -17.75078800909007 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8293784463781995 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 20.321802775070314 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8715447823038012 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 27.08134270833139 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |