Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 7.9 seats |
| Average district win probability | 65.9% |
| Average district margin | D +28.7 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.0 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 12 |
| Expected dem seats | 7.905132826253022 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.6587610688544184 |
| Pre poll state margin | 25.6899457315515 |
| Final state margin | 28.687948752333302 |
| Polling effect | 2.9980030207818076 |
| Polling uncertainty | 80.02362419808145 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 35 |
| State environment shift | -1.8266745751562744e-06 |
| State environment poll margin | 5.854518389554452 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7533276913325815 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 41.42545036242641 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.408309547806441 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -4.842820869023248 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6806402270997547 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 30.343988257103053 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.3205537718562381 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -15.186148085427279 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7035131220323937 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 33.21007980128982 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7394700788646225 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 38.72733943722172 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.5146447084728719 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 6.648565847345296 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.791133095492436 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 48.20438421288753 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6473184017635965 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 26.722576785144437 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8359731111245909 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 57.365006921017965 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7277595000476486 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 36.26536329333439 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.782489570359846 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 45.371599064679536 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |