Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 4.7 seats |
| Average district win probability | 58.4% |
| Average district margin | D +18.7 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.8 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 8 |
| Expected dem seats | 4.671388543422115 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.5839235679277643 |
| Pre poll state margin | 15.899228824050407 |
| Final state margin | 18.70988794123364 |
| Polling effect | 2.8106591171832305 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.8083974026166514 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.30654434070557346 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -4.835353743546316 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9012111003633156 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 34.75109714634628 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9155085271713006 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 40.927496591427044 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9554566393035953 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 53.43366206687956 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9658871949490435 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 58.03776426623744 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.18499531990558138 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -10.865772712469784 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.12141598608341514 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -17.364302062746138 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.32036943494029013 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -4.405488022258991 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |