Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 8.7 seats |
| Average district win probability | 96.2% |
| Average district margin | D +73.3 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.2 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 9 |
| Expected dem seats | 8.656305162429726 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.961811684714414 |
| Pre poll state margin | 70.15276372549336 |
| Final state margin | 73.32684579515345 |
| Polling effect | 3.174082069660078 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.04222622920486 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709957703472578 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 76.26753144604073 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709957703472578 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 76.89731846254821 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709957703472578 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 76.56900121506511 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709957703472578 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 77.76488362523857 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709957703472578 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 77.44247761161431 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709957703471295 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 75.21101654797916 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709957703472578 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 77.6942904660625 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9611804021324342 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 68.47897252327876 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8981543678666155 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 53.61612025855363 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |