Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 4 |
| Expected dem seats | 1.9367721163131455 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.4841930290782864 |
| Pre poll state margin | -2.876070659632714 |
| Final state margin | 0.037658452604794945 |
| Polling effect | 2.9137291122375086 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.130615132390628 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 3 |
| Direct house poll count | 3 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7289953373007542 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 8.911851520565532 |
| Direct house poll count | 3 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.40339077767284975 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -1.0382045926795311 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6419092325511588 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 5.3817610600509544 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.16247676878838274 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.104774177517776 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |