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Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 44.6 seats |
| Average district win probability | 85.8% |
| Average district margin | D +45.1 pts |
| Polling effect | +3.1 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 52 |
| Expected dem seats | 44.619572325685624 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.8580686985708774 |
| Pre poll state margin | 42.02838785528752 |
| Final state margin | 45.13065592361805 |
| Polling effect | 3.1022680683305235 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.0654995065149797 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 2 |
| Direct house poll count | 2 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.629056032861259 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.41139817059847406 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 2.5681742426560774 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9628419792030676 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 62.31231768390022 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6651523663344624 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 16.455466455577575 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9532849350305352 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 58.278266986962265 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.38214531621825043 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -0.6824000189165598 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9083072583262932 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 44.08191015960127 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9540209505599673 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 58.576582197111044 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9649346911872974 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 63.24687277498555 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.840327605260927 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 33.62825145172833 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9533303928828839 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 59.01293768166566 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9687994202609675 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 63.732872132194295 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709957703176926 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 70.97489486071574 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8141038184009418 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 28.906136134890694 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9562963977305432 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 58.04498918189472 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9641334938678126 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 63.161241266580106 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709957703181815 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 71.00264611729752 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9561079417404491 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 60.005342834692826 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9479429112291778 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 56.29178608721629 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9592065470617219 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 60.52170491774087 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.17033709846494283 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -11.927792836437774 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8513418412125591 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 34.928189331694 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7080505768599679 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 13.918214398730532 |
| Direct house poll count | 2 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.425656572105422 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 1.255864498572151 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9405408312428349 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 53.25200482700658 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8955165927801276 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 42.165157916472985 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8934896775485861 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 39.709987526391906 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8335469099604176 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 30.515105536190244 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9489283140686513 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 56.653514393730674 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9599888429286568 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 61.47235707590131 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9575500163468371 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 60.53883333313789 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9243584401409032 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 48.66807962545218 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9526258015931346 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 58.16214911276844 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9179214106132326 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 46.71065553179147 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709957703181815 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 71.00264611729752 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9148098549697734 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 45.898921741568984 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9581922699907622 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 60.2177059265597 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9709957703181815 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 71.00264611729752 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9250859319009477 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 48.552984947363576 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8998104001068219 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 42.92808420455293 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6311509692746988 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 9.305439724812688 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7635446336733231 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 23.576381622926068 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9570906477811865 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 59.69757856983896 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9658142745405087 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 63.680970329839205 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.962227043295298 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 61.956462905159995 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8149404208094405 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 28.396552132582315 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9435810186079145 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 54.37306456563129 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8351847911410384 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 32.11779610593037 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.5461731356248453 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 9.158373284291994 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8457561569423486 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 33.76055028489593 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9467447722550805 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 55.52159670630345 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9303876349503255 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 50.63816817437731 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9529081667890288 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 58.86587114701154 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |