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Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 5.3 seats |
| Average district win probability | 59.3% |
| Average district margin | D +12.9 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.9 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 9 |
| Expected dem seats | 5.334714406744958 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.5927460451938842 |
| Pre poll state margin | 10.034811245976709 |
| Final state margin | 12.907176628264075 |
| Polling effect | 2.8723653822873647 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.9587481251129826 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 1 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 4 |
| Direct house poll count | 4 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7282478731633292 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 11.495353917745717 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.4492639324924763 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -0.8317949956376522 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9637662600808568 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 54.734254239859546 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8660797941211318 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 27.68888703382396 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.3332543074866844 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -4.434073691837868 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6586647754746437 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 5.878553520520903 |
| Direct house poll count | 4 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9436719764647443 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 46.73677177670035 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.27435945949653723 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -7.384087917291943 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.11740602796455371 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -17.719274229506354 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |