Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Expected Democratic seats | 0.4 seats |
| Average district win probability | 9.8% |
| Average district margin | R +26.5 pts |
| Polling effect | +2.4 pts |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Districts | 4 |
| Expected dem seats | 0.3915802231890636 seats |
| Average dem win prob | 0.0978950557972659 |
| Pre poll state margin | -28.935475252678625 |
| Final state margin | -26.52989237603569 |
| Polling effect | 2.405582876642937 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.547768564072575 |
| Special elections | 0 |
| Polled state | 0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
Open any race sheet to inspect its complete model row, historical results, polling and recorded inputs.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.07147179506319282 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -31.387597453813335 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.15410800781572867 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -16.845842846939362 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.09117564488381362 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -27.195264894170926 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.0748247754263285 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -30.69086430921913 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |