Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
No direct polling records are stored for this race. Its forecast still has model calculations and historical inputs to inspect.
All 8 district evidence items include 2 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | R +35.5 ptsOriginal report |
| Democratic win probability | 12.0% |
| 80% margin range | ±15.6 pts |
| Forecast margin | R +14.1 pts |
| Current rating | Likely Rep |
| Tipping-point rank | 339 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 4 |
| Open seat | 1 |
| Incumbent running | 0 |
| State pres margin lag | -21.227198661554997 |
| Statewide house vote lag | -30.928147260589625 |
| Gov margin lag | -24.354672077661363 |
| Sen margin lag | -30.57518166079977 |
| Boundary geoid | 4904 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 872486 |
| Acs median household income | 106578 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 35.608543884586005 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 3.6176937312356863 |
| Acs median age | 30.9 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 23.478199077119864 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 17.338730936656862 |
| Fec receipts dem | 53578.79 |
| Fec receipts rep | 971392.5 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 1128.9 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 391556.75 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -917813.71 |
| Fec cash advantage | -390427.85 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 4 |
| Lag soft | -24.847982589063726 |
| Lag margin raw | -35.477655559308594 |
| Lag dem share | 0.322611722203457 |
| Lag rep share | 0.677388277796543 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | -23.384581097559757 |
| Lag centered | -1.4634014915039693 |
| Abs lag centered | 1.4634014915039693 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | -1.6975976897631107 |
| State trend | 0.2479515879411167 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | -23.150384899300615 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 0 |
| Competitive index | 0.0 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | -19.122230408007198 |
| Baseline lean effect | -20.73679585319086 |
| Incumbency effect | 2.552519421010741 |
| State environment effect | -18.225661879428458 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | -1.1625703080907732 |
| Pre poll margin | -17.575101588520585 |
| Sigma idio | 3.4847950392191867 |
| National component sd | 5.877838845401201 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 12.158124708901639 |
| Rich prob | 0.05925333223574077 |
| Simple prob | 0.19408089428088554 |
| Raw prob | 0.11992573515605592 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 1.2110409115779186 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.11992573515605592 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 3.9373081271279102 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 3.9373081271279102 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 3.9373081271279102 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 3.4847950392191867 |
| Poll measurement sd | 3.0540426745494305 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 3.0540426745494305 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 0.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 0.0 |
| Polling effect | 3.5160547963089774 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.262253832999578 |
| Poll national shift | 3.5160547963089774 |
| Poll state shift | 0.0 |
| Poll district shift | 0.0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -14.059046792211607 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 70 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 6 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | 0.0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| District info weight | 0.0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| Raw total sigma | 9.006018302890102 |
| Margin low 80 | -29.64089941913995 |
| Margin high 80 | 1.5228058347167348 |
| Tipping point rank | 339 |
| Prob change since last update | 0.00029604501703545116 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · UT-04. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 109838.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 230627.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 340465.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 32.261172220345706Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 67.7388277796543Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -35.477655559308594Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · UT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 50| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 34.63300335874517Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 65.36699664125483Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -30.73399328250966Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · UT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 68| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 68 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 68 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 68 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 49.47062942372424Compare report · PDF page 68 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 50.52937057627577Compare report · PDF page 68 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -1.0587411525515265Compare report · PDF page 68 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · UT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 53| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 53 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 53 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 53 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 50.1288841676757Compare report · PDF page 53 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 49.8711158323243Compare report · PDF page 53 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 0.2577683353514004Compare report · PDF page 53 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · UT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 73| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 73 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 73 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 73 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 43.45159189303092Compare report · PDF page 73 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 56.548408106969084Compare report · PDF page 73 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -13.096816213938167Compare report · PDF page 73 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · UT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 49| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 49 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 49 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 49 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 47.36198818496639Compare report · PDF page 49 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 52.638011815033614Compare report · PDF page 49 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -5.276023630067229Compare report · PDF page 49 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · UT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 62| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 62 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 62 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 62 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 50.16077843559232Compare report · PDF page 62 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 49.83922156440768Compare report · PDF page 62 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 0.3215568711846401Compare report · PDF page 62 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
No records in this sealed run.
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 4 |
| Boundary geoid | 4904 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 872486 |
| Acs median household income | 106578 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 35.608543884586005 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 3.6176937312356863 |
| Acs median age | 30.9 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 23.478199077119864 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 17.338730936656862 |
| Fec receipts dem | 53578.79 |
| Fec receipts rep | 971392.5 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 1128.9 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 391556.75 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -917813.71 |
| Fec cash advantage | -390427.85 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 4Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 10Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 6Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 7Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 70Original report |