Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -44.5 pts to -41.4 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -38.4 pts to -35.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -32.3 pts to -29.3 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -26.2 pts to -23.2 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -20.1 pts to -17.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -14.1 pts to -11.0 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -8.0 pts to -4.9 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -1.9 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 1.1 pts to 4.2 pts | 7.9% |
| 7.2 pts to 10.3 pts | 3.5% |
| 13.3 pts to 16.3 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · UT-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 12% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +35.5 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +14.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026