Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
2 polling records have a documented discrepancy. Open the polling record and the original report for the affected fields.
Polling includes 6 district records and 0 shared statewide records. Duplicate source entries remain visible; these counts are records, not independent polls.
All 16 district evidence items include 4 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | R +14.2 ptsOriginal report |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll, 2026-07-30 | D +5.0 ptsOriginal report |
| Democratic win probability | 22.8% |
| 80% margin range | ±14.8 pts |
| Forecast margin | R +10.0 pts |
| Current rating | Lean Rep |
| Tipping-point rank | 286 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | -13.683305009872086 |
| Statewide house vote lag | -20.12738782839151 |
| Gov margin lag | -10.902789467682467 |
| Sen margin lag | -8.497205153378701 |
| Boundary geoid | 4815 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 790465 |
| Acs median household income | 59751 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 22.677886487337314 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 6.572554453730568 |
| Acs median age | 32.9 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 66.13575553629826 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 81.3928510433732 |
| Fec receipts dem | 4224834.66 |
| Fec receipts rep | 5273959.93 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 1159819.31 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 2463322.86 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -1049125.2699999996 |
| Fec cash advantage | -1303503.5499999998 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 38 |
| Lag soft | -13.249619919263456 |
| Lag margin raw | -14.228512439167185 |
| Lag dem share | 0.4288574378041641 |
| Lag rep share | 0.5711425621958359 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | -8.1439825541008 |
| Lag centered | -5.105637365162655 |
| Abs lag centered | 5.105637365162655 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | -4.840261990384697 |
| State trend | -0.3500325863508067 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | -8.409357928878759 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 1 |
| Competitive index | 0.3375190040368272 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | -16.028159775900065 |
| Baseline lean effect | -13.670085934829174 |
| Incumbency effect | -6.756420998621746 |
| State environment effect | -14.884076093529357 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | -3.1572856555696074 |
| Pre poll margin | -13.074029488815029 |
| Sigma idio | 2.0250000000000004 |
| National component sd | 3.9905658649975626 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 11.549119835060289 |
| Rich prob | 0.12017872299717647 |
| Simple prob | 0.3599175725337517 |
| Raw prob | 0.22806120528863533 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 0.822196499422486 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.22806120528863533 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 2.6731061918084404 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 2.6731061918084404 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 2.6731061918084404 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 2.0250000000000004 |
| Poll measurement sd | 3.3599730989960355 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.0734420877901685 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 0.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 2.643909441444122 |
| Polling effect | 3.029770008013202 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.488868962219285 |
| Poll national shift | 2.387110061819644 |
| Poll state shift | 0.0 |
| Poll district shift | 0.6426599461935583 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 4 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -10.044259480801827 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 68 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | 0.0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll count | 0 |
| District poll margin | 4.943114004601703 |
| District effective variance | 93.28338306547946 |
| District poll count | 4 |
| District info weight | 0.04111699114439393 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| Raw total sigma | 8.554903581526139 |
| Margin low 80 | -24.845611461415096 |
| Margin high 80 | 4.75709249981144 |
| Tipping point rank | 286 |
| Prob change since last update | -0.01700659531206511 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · TX-15. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 95965.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 127804.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 223769.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 42.88574378041641Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 57.11425621958359Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -14.228512439167176Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · TX-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 47| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 47 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 47 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 47 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 45.67969143048801Compare report · PDF page 47 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 54.32030856951199Compare report · PDF page 47 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -8.640617139023973Compare report · PDF page 47 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · TX-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 66| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 66 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 66 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 66 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 51.46646365894703Compare report · PDF page 66 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 48.533536341052965Compare report · PDF page 66 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 2.9329273178940625Compare report · PDF page 66 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · TX-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 50| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 60.62640648601991Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 39.37359351398009Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 21.25281297203982Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · TX-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 71| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 71 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 71 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 71 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 60.331338343545546Compare report · PDF page 71 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 39.66866165645445Compare report · PDF page 71 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 20.662676687091093Compare report · PDF page 71 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · TX-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 47| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 47 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 47 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 47 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 55.524143905886646Compare report · PDF page 47 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 44.47585609411336Compare report · PDF page 47 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 11.048287811773292Compare report · PDF page 47 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · TX-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 59| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 59 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 59 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 59 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 62.291422512416986Compare report · PDF page 59 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 37.70857748758301Compare report · PDF page 59 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 24.58284502483397Compare report · PDF page 59 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · TX-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 50| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 57.26232488503903Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 42.737675114960965Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 14.524649770078064Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · TX-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 61| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 61 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 61 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 61 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 67.28629418129734Compare report · PDF page 61 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 32.71370581870266Compare report · PDF page 61 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 34.57258836259468Compare report · PDF page 61 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · TX-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 44| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 44 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 44 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 44 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 61.77718719190707Compare report · PDF page 44 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 38.22281280809293Compare report · PDF page 44 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 23.55437438381413Compare report · PDF page 44 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
Date discrepancy: the stored poll date is July 30, 2026, while the linked report says the survey was fielded August 18–22, 2026. The candidate vote shares and sample size match. The original stored date is preserved; this comparison does not establish why it differs. Document reviewed 2026-09-06T04:38:16.490750+00:00. PDF page 8. Physical PDF page 8 (printed page 7), Figure 2; methodology and field dates on physical page 2. Open the receipt for the reviewed document identity.
Original reportCompare methodology and field dates| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15.0Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
| Sample size | 700.0Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 50.0Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
| Republican poll response (%) | 45.0Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 5.0Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
| Poll se | 2.6726124191242437Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
Date discrepancy: the stored poll date is July 30, 2026, while the linked report says the survey was fielded August 18–22, 2026. The candidate vote shares and sample size match. The original stored date is preserved; this comparison does not establish why it differs. Document reviewed 2026-09-06T04:38:16.490750+00:00. PDF page 8. Physical PDF page 8 (printed page 7), Figure 2; methodology and field dates on physical page 2. Open the receipt for the reviewed document identity.
Original reportCompare methodology and field dates| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15.0Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
| Sample size | 700.0Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 50.0Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
| Republican poll response (%) | 45.0Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 5.0Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
| Poll se | 2.6726124191242437Original reportCompare methodology and field dates |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 802.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 48.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 46.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 2.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.496880847194612Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 802.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 48.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 46.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 2.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.496880847194612Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 533.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 38.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 41.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -3.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.0628194591584443Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 533.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 38.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 41.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -3.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.0628194591584443Original publication · exact location unavailable |
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableStored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableDate discrepancy: the stored poll date is July 30, 2026, while the linked report says the survey was fielded August 18–22, 2026. The candidate vote shares and sample size match. The original stored date is preserved; this comparison does not establish why it differs. Document reviewed 2026-09-06T04:38:16.490750+00:00. PDF page 8. Physical PDF page 8 (printed page 7), Figure 2; methodology and field dates on physical page 2. Open the receipt for the reviewed document identity.
Original reportCompare methodology and field datesThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableDate discrepancy: the stored poll date is July 30, 2026, while the linked report says the survey was fielded August 18–22, 2026. The candidate vote shares and sample size match. The original stored date is preserved; this comparison does not establish why it differs. Document reviewed 2026-09-06T04:38:16.490750+00:00. PDF page 8. Physical PDF page 8 (printed page 7), Figure 2; methodology and field dates on physical page 2. Open the receipt for the reviewed document identity.
Original reportCompare methodology and field datesGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15 |
| Boundary geoid | 4815 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 790465 |
| Acs median household income | 59751 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 22.677886487337314 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 6.572554453730568 |
| Acs median age | 32.9 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 66.13575553629826 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 81.3928510433732 |
| Fec receipts dem | 4224834.66 |
| Fec receipts rep | 5273959.93 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 1159819.31 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 2463322.86 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -1049125.2699999996 |
| Fec cash advantage | -1303503.5499999998 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 7Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 4Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 68Original report |