Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -38.9 pts to -36.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -33.1 pts to -30.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -27.4 pts to -24.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -21.6 pts to -18.7 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -15.8 pts to -12.9 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -10.0 pts to -7.2 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -4.3 pts to -1.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| 1.5 pts to 4.4 pts | 10.7% |
| 7.3 pts to 10.2 pts | 5.4% |
| 13.1 pts to 15.9 pts | 2.2% |
| 18.8 pts | 0.4% |
Published model read · TX-15 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 22.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +14.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · D +5.0 pts Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll, 2026-07-30 · Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center
R +10.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026