Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
Polling includes 4 district records and 0 shared statewide records. Duplicate source entries remain visible; these counts are records, not independent polls.
All 14 district evidence items include 4 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | R +1.3 ptsOriginal report |
| PPP poll, 2025-11-19 | D +4.0 pts |
| Democratic win probability | 69.1% |
| 80% margin range | ±14.8 pts |
| Forecast margin | D +7.0 pts |
| Current rating | Lean Dem |
| Tipping-point rank | 223 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 10 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | -1.7097309916712646 |
| Statewide house vote lag | -5.150290149400205 |
| Gov margin lag | 14.771404382895165 |
| Sen margin lag | -0.2170717020216628 |
| Boundary geoid | 4210 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 779640 |
| Acs median household income | 81964 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 34.6723879705604 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 4.265024630541872 |
| Acs median age | 40.2 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 27.22589913293315 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 10.414165512287722 |
| Fec receipts dem | 6520504.21 |
| Fec receipts rep | 5210550.279999999 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 4478667.49 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 2845797.62 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 1309953.9300000006 |
| Fec cash advantage | 1632869.8700000006 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 17 |
| Lag soft | -1.2635346714039053 |
| Lag margin raw | -1.2642826002891627 |
| Lag dem share | 0.4936785869985542 |
| Lag rep share | 0.5063214130014458 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | -2.1165091010486248 |
| Lag centered | 0.8529744296447195 |
| Abs lag centered | 0.8529744296447195 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | 6.24072025930365 |
| State trend | -0.5493096894925196 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | -7.504254930707555 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 1 |
| Competitive index | 0.9368232664298047 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | 0.34906979806453275 |
| Baseline lean effect | -4.806080227751217 |
| Incumbency effect | -6.756420998621746 |
| State environment effect | -4.24998404795685 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | -0.036417476883742445 |
| Pre poll margin | 4.6676105333934155 |
| Sigma idio | 2.0250000000000004 |
| National component sd | 3.926248610637783 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 11.546252249781924 |
| Rich prob | 0.7939904238909983 |
| Simple prob | 0.5645262244894609 |
| Raw prob | 0.6907315341603064 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 0.8089448897069529 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6907315341603064 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 2.6300228656122067 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 2.6300228656122067 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 2.6300228656122067 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 2.0250000000000004 |
| Poll measurement sd | 3.3840312817747127 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.040023743958183 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 0.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 2.6999946000162 |
| Polling effect | 2.3486239373542093 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.506689838351639 |
| Poll national shift | 2.348636228728071 |
| Poll state shift | 0.0 |
| Poll district shift | -1.2291373861903929e-05 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 4 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 7.016234470747625 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 61 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | 0.0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll count | 0 |
| District poll margin | 3.9433910052716428 |
| District effective variance | 1000000.0 |
| District poll count | 4 |
| District info weight | 3.999983999913859e-06 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| Raw total sigma | 8.552779444282907 |
| Margin low 80 | -7.78144241257289 |
| Margin high 80 | 21.81391135406814 |
| Tipping point rank | 223 |
| Prob change since last update | 0.00019496304567834244 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · PA-10. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 200434.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 205567.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 406001.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 49.36785869985542Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 50.63214130014458Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -1.2642826002891638Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · PA-10. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 43| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 43 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 43 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 43 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 46.16653843952872Compare report · PDF page 43 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 53.833461560471285Compare report · PDF page 43 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -7.66692312094257Compare report · PDF page 43 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · PA-10. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 61| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 61 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 61 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 61 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 46.687627924069886Compare report · PDF page 61 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 53.312372075930114Compare report · PDF page 61 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -6.624744151860227Compare report · PDF page 61 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · PA-10. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 46| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 46 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 46 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 46 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 48.677641367130185Compare report · PDF page 46 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 51.322358632869815Compare report · PDF page 46 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -2.6447172657396294Compare report · PDF page 46 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · PA-10. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 65| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 65 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 65 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 65 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 29.831122033842018Compare report · PDF page 65 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 70.16887796615798Compare report · PDF page 65 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -40.33775593231596Compare report · PDF page 65 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · PA-10. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 42| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 42 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 42 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 42 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 28.388582887021855Compare report · PDF page 42 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 71.61141711297815Compare report · PDF page 42 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -43.22283422595629Compare report · PDF page 42 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · PA-10. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 54| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 34.41579312611856Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 65.58420687388144Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -31.168413747762884Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · PA-10. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 44| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 44 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 44 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 44 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 44.82326822819227Compare report · PDF page 44 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 55.17673177180773Compare report · PDF page 44 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -10.353463543615462Compare report · PDF page 44 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · PA-10. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 56| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 56 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 56 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 56 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 56.33164984344244Compare report · PDF page 56 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 43.66835015655756Compare report · PDF page 56 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 12.663299686884883Compare report · PDF page 56 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · PA-10. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 40| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 40 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 40 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 40 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 52.94575842521048Compare report · PDF page 40 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 47.05424157478952Compare report · PDF page 40 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 5.891516850420963Compare report · PDF page 40 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 10.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 549.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 48.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 44.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 4.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.017858201417284Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 10.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 549.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 48.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 44.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 4.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.017858201417284Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 10.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 559.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 46.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 43.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 3.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.9907430227728957Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 10.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 559.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 46.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 43.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 3.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.9907430227728957Original publication · exact location unavailable |
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Generated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 10 |
| Boundary geoid | 4210 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 779640 |
| Acs median household income | 81964 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 34.6723879705604 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 4.265024630541872 |
| Acs median age | 40.2 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 27.22589913293315 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 10.414165512287722 |
| Fec receipts dem | 6520504.21 |
| Fec receipts rep | 5210550.279999999 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 4478667.49 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 2845797.62 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 1309953.9300000006 |
| Fec cash advantage | 1632869.8700000006 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 10Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 14Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 11Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 61Original report |