Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -21.8 pts to -19.0 pts | 1.2% |
| -16.1 pts to -13.2 pts | 3.5% |
| -10.3 pts to -7.4 pts | 7.9% |
| -4.5 pts to -1.6 pts | 13.7% |
| 1.2 pts to 4.1 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 7.0 pts to 9.9 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 12.8 pts to 15.7 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.6 pts to 21.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.3 pts to 27.2 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.1 pts to 33.0 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.9 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · PA-10 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 69.1% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +1.3 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · D +4.0 pts PPP poll, 2025-11-19 · PPP
D +7.0 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.8 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026