Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
No direct polling records are stored for this race. Its forecast still has model calculations and historical inputs to inspect.
All 9 district evidence items include 3 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic win probability | 6.3% |
| 80% margin range | ±14.6 pts |
| Forecast margin | R +34.2 pts |
| Current rating | Likely Rep |
| Tipping-point rank | 432 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 3 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | -34.262753859247994 |
| Statewide house vote lag | -35.21304427855966 |
| Gov margin lag | -13.66359023449558 |
| Sen margin lag | -32.20471838794785 |
| Boundary geoid | 4003 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 797981 |
| Acs median household income | 59242 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 22.18482341755223 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 5.178406334999263 |
| Acs median age | 35.6 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 34.18565103680413 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 21.165165586649305 |
| Fec receipts dem | 945.0 |
| Fec receipts rep | 907278.68 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 510.82 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 532511.92 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -906333.68 |
| Fec cash advantage | -532001.1000000001 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 5 |
| Lag soft | -29.92373902421512 |
| Lag margin raw | -100.0 |
| Lag dem share | 0.0 |
| Lag rep share | 1.0 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | -24.885301136023102 |
| Lag centered | -5.038437888192018 |
| Abs lag centered | 5.038437888192018 |
| Lag dem zero | 1 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | -2.1165776030139263 |
| State trend | -0.7110855430577452 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | -27.807161421201194 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 1 |
| Competitive index | 0.0 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | -41.57602621520469 |
| Baseline lean effect | -27.06217222260045 |
| Incumbency effect | -6.756420998621746 |
| State environment effect | -28.60932775211832 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | -4.72675716262522 |
| Pre poll margin | -36.64186850143408 |
| Sigma idio | 2.856620643813005 |
| National component sd | 4.026788359974015 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 11.430672699389627 |
| Rich prob | 2.6381255258858698e-05 |
| Simple prob | 0.1392620406482737 |
| Raw prob | 0.06268242798211554 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 0.8296596035479471 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.06268242798211554 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 2.6973700628683317 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 2.6973700628683317 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 2.6973700628683317 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 2.856620643813005 |
| Poll measurement sd | 2.092262788450121 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.092262788450121 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 0.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 0.0 |
| Polling effect | 2.40877793678969 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.5498242877408304 |
| Poll national shift | 2.40877793678969 |
| Poll state shift | 0.0 |
| Poll district shift | 0.0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -34.23309056464439 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 63 |
| Official best source pdf page | 58 |
| Official conflict count | 1 |
| Official missing certified cycles | 2024.0 |
| Official past election rows | 0 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 10 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | 0.0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| District info weight | 0.0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| Raw total sigma | 8.467164962510834 |
| Margin low 80 | -48.882640696182136 |
| Margin high 80 | -19.58354043310665 |
| Tipping point rank | 432 |
| Prob change since last update | 2.8578840083337553e-07 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · OK-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 58| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 58 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 58 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 58 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 0.0Compare report · PDF page 58 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 100.0Compare report · PDF page 58 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -100.0Compare report · PDF page 58 Source transformation requires review. |
2022 · OK-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 42| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 42 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 42 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 42 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 25.46063143417673Compare report · PDF page 42 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 74.53936856582327Compare report · PDF page 42 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -49.07873713164653Compare report · PDF page 42 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · OK-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 59| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 59 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 59 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 59 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 21.50896894345652Compare report · PDF page 59 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 78.49103105654348Compare report · PDF page 59 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -56.98206211308696Compare report · PDF page 59 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · OK-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 44| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 44 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 44 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 44 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 26.126076089975008Compare report · PDF page 44 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 73.873923910025Compare report · PDF page 44 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -47.74784782004999Compare report · PDF page 44 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · OK-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 63| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 63 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 63 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 63 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 21.709134077731708Compare report · PDF page 63 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 78.2908659222683Compare report · PDF page 63 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -56.58173184453659Compare report · PDF page 63 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · OK-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 40| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 40 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 40 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 40 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 21.384982754046167Compare report · PDF page 40 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 78.61501724595384Compare report · PDF page 40 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -57.23003449190768Compare report · PDF page 40 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · OK-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 51| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 51 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 51 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 51 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 20.95166447244687Compare report · PDF page 51 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 79.04833552755312Compare report · PDF page 51 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -58.096671055106256Compare report · PDF page 51 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · OK-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 42| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 42 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 42 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 42 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 22.006492755856964Compare report · PDF page 42 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 77.99350724414303Compare report · PDF page 42 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -55.987014488286064Compare report · PDF page 42 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · OK-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 54| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 25.262060883282032Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 74.73793911671797Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -49.475878233435935Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · OK-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 38| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 38 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 38 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 38 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 32.53526247293075Compare report · PDF page 38 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 67.46473752706925Compare report · PDF page 38 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -34.9294750541385Compare report · PDF page 38 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
No records in this sealed run.
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Generated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 3 |
| Boundary geoid | 4003 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 797981 |
| Acs median household income | 59242 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 22.18482341755223 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 5.178406334999263 |
| Acs median age | 35.6 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 34.18565103680413 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 21.165165586649305 |
| Fec receipts dem | 945.0 |
| Fec receipts rep | 907278.68 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 510.82 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 532511.92 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -906333.68 |
| Fec cash advantage | -532001.1000000001 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 3Original report |
| Government data score | 63Original report |
| Official record rows | 9Original report |
| Official past election rows | 0Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 10Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 6Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 1Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Missing certified cycles | 2024.0Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 58Original report |