Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -62.8 pts to -60.0 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -57.1 pts to -54.2 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -51.4 pts to -48.5 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -45.7 pts to -42.8 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -39.9 pts to -37.1 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -34.2 pts to -31.4 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -28.5 pts to -25.7 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -22.8 pts to -19.9 pts | 10.7% (short of Even) |
| -17.1 pts to -14.2 pts | 5.4% (short of Even) |
| -11.4 pts to -8.5 pts | 2.2% (short of Even) |
| -5.7 pts | 0.4% (short of Even) |
Published model read · OK-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 6.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
R +34.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026