Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
No direct polling records are stored for this race. Its forecast still has model calculations and historical inputs to inspect.
All 8 district evidence items include 2 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | D +56.7 ptsOriginal report |
| Democratic win probability | 96.8% |
| 80% margin range | ±16.3 pts |
| Forecast margin | D +65.1 pts |
| Current rating | Safe Dem |
| Tipping-point rank | 29 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | 12.413354974155348 |
| Statewide house vote lag | 11.300383651948165 |
| Gov margin lag | 6.337074520845896 |
| Sen margin lag | 17.483407168084305 |
| Boundary geoid | 3615 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 751695 |
| Acs median household income | 47075 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 22.29494343792594 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 12.11313727057667 |
| Acs median age | 35.5 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 86.45235102002808 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 52.3712409953505 |
| Fec receipts dem | 7777055.4 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 14106965.41 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 26 |
| Lag soft | 28.662874206604872 |
| Lag margin raw | 56.71927020107932 |
| Lag dem share | 0.7835963510053966 |
| Lag rep share | 0.2164036489946034 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | 10.176392914833063 |
| Lag centered | 18.48648129177181 |
| Abs lag centered | 18.48648129177181 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | -0.5890952551865958 |
| State trend | 1.7892042167088782 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | 29.251969461791468 |
| Inc dem | 1 |
| Inc rep | 0 |
| Competitive index | 0.0 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | 61.93547584863184 |
| Baseline lean effect | 34.29101726652054 |
| Incumbency effect | 5.5821991525536525 |
| State environment effect | 14.226681345589347 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | 8.289559511542306 |
| Pre poll margin | 61.91599470336336 |
| Sigma idio | 5.588069239407489 |
| National component sd | 5.239880827159416 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 12.720275158014864 |
| Rich prob | 0.9999999999974684 |
| Simple prob | 0.928348804744611 |
| Raw prob | 0.9677569621336826 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 1.0795991894959247 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9677569621336826 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 3.509967848488756 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 3.509967848488756 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 3.509967848488756 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 5.588069239407489 |
| Poll measurement sd | 2.722568630512688 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.722568630512688 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 0.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 0.0 |
| Polling effect | 3.1344357337792546 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.0167175040834726 |
| Poll national shift | 3.1344357337792546 |
| Poll state shift | 0.0 |
| Poll district shift | 0.0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 65.05043043714261 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 50 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | 0.0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| District info weight | 0.0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| Raw total sigma | 9.422426042973973 |
| Margin low 80 | 48.74812579463076 |
| Margin high 80 | 81.35273507965445 |
| Tipping point rank | 29 |
| Prob change since last update | -4.285460875053104e-14 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · NY-15. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 130392.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 36010.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 166402.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 78.35963510053966Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 21.640364899460344Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 56.71927020107932Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · NY-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 35| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 35 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 35 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 35 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 82.79082871012483Compare report · PDF page 35 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 17.209171289875176Compare report · PDF page 35 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 65.58165742024966Compare report · PDF page 35 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · NY-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 51| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 51 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 51 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 51 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 88.87520052004152Compare report · PDF page 51 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 11.12479947995848Compare report · PDF page 51 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 77.75040104008303Compare report · PDF page 51 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · NY-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 37| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 37 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 37 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 37 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 95.98608819038512Compare report · PDF page 37 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 4.01391180961488Compare report · PDF page 37 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 91.97217638077024Compare report · PDF page 37 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · NY-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 54| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 54 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 96.43283260678513Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 3.567167393214874Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 92.86566521357024Compare report · PDF page 54 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · NY-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 33| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 33 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 33 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 33 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 100.0Compare report · PDF page 33 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 0.0Compare report · PDF page 33 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 100.0Compare report · PDF page 33 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · NY-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 45| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 45 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 45 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 45 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 97.18183438582196Compare report · PDF page 45 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 2.8181656141780405Compare report · PDF page 45 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 94.36366877164392Compare report · PDF page 45 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · NY-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 36| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 36 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 36 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 36 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 88.58602239291507Compare report · PDF page 36 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 11.41397760708494Compare report · PDF page 36 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 77.17204478583012Compare report · PDF page 36 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · NY-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 48| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 48 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 48 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 48 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 91.870433082504Compare report · PDF page 48 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 8.129566917495994Compare report · PDF page 48 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 83.74086616500801Compare report · PDF page 48 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · NY-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 32| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 32 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 32 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 32 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 94.03482100843378Compare report · PDF page 32 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 5.965178991566222Compare report · PDF page 32 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 88.06964201686756Compare report · PDF page 32 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
No records in this sealed run.
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15 |
| Boundary geoid | 3615 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 751695 |
| Acs median household income | 47075 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 22.29494343792594 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 12.11313727057667 |
| Acs median age | 35.5 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 86.45235102002808 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 52.3712409953505 |
| Fec receipts dem | 7777055.4 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 14106965.41 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 12Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 9Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 50Original report |