Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 33.2 pts to 36.4 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 39.6 pts to 42.8 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 46.0 pts to 49.2 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 52.3 pts to 55.5 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 58.7 pts to 61.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.1 pts to 68.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 71.4 pts to 74.6 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 77.8 pts to 81.0 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 84.1 pts to 87.3 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 90.5 pts to 93.7 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 96.9 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NY-15 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 96.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +56.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +65.1 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±16.3 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026