Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
No direct polling records are stored for this race. Its forecast still has model calculations and historical inputs to inspect.
All 8 district evidence items include 2 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | D +12.6 ptsOriginal report |
| Democratic win probability | 89.6% |
| 80% margin range | ±14.9 pts |
| Forecast margin | D +31.9 pts |
| Current rating | Likely Dem |
| Tipping-point rank | 152 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 3 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | 6.000738572432624 |
| Statewide house vote lag | 10.127874840582509 |
| Gov margin lag | 6.383519408751901 |
| Sen margin lag | 10.113349665840452 |
| Boundary geoid | 3503 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 701127 |
| Acs median household income | 62557 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 28.148335706250805 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 6.238909215272535 |
| Acs median age | 40.0 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 54.95609212025781 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 42.97238588729289 |
| Fec receipts dem | 1249948.86 |
| Fec receipts rep | 440623.09 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 666975.48 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 242569.39 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 809325.77 |
| Fec cash advantage | 424406.09 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 3 |
| Lag soft | 11.883134106307475 |
| Lag margin raw | 12.570598452988108 |
| Lag dem share | 0.5628529922649406 |
| Lag rep share | 0.4371470077350595 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | 9.346019104785073 |
| Lag centered | 2.5371150015224018 |
| Abs lag centered | 2.5371150015224018 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | -2.993363782592807 |
| State trend | 0.49345542946928056 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | 14.876497888900282 |
| Inc dem | 1 |
| Inc rep | 0 |
| Competitive index | 0.4058432946846262 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | 32.859090103388844 |
| Baseline lean effect | 8.22800399778123 |
| Incumbency effect | 5.5821991525536525 |
| State environment effect | 2.2434911554376713 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | -0.6802582021056884 |
| Pre poll margin | 28.788449502450607 |
| Sigma idio | 2.0250000000000004 |
| National component sd | 5.1963257783262655 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 11.59106694423023 |
| Rich prob | 0.9998983949741261 |
| Simple prob | 0.7685406567981707 |
| Raw prob | 0.8957874127949463 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 1.0706253221562325 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.8957874127949463 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 3.480792219102048 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 3.480792219102048 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 3.480792219102048 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 2.0250000000000004 |
| Poll measurement sd | 2.69993803764902 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.69993803764902 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 0.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 0.0 |
| Polling effect | 3.1083816104218083 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.9999541019622369 |
| Poll national shift | 3.1083816104218083 |
| Poll state shift | 0.0 |
| Poll district shift | 0.0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 31.896831112872416 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 48 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | 0.0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| District info weight | 0.0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| Raw total sigma | 8.585975514244614 |
| Margin low 80 | 17.041719717146954 |
| Margin high 80 | 46.75194250859788 |
| Tipping point rank | 152 |
| Prob change since last update | -4.0864355677072695e-07 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · NM-03. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 162342.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 126085.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 288427.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 56.28529922649405Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 43.714700773505946Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 12.570598452988108Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · NM-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 33| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 33 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 33 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 33 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 58.15748195266529Compare report · PDF page 33 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 41.84251804733472Compare report · PDF page 33 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 16.31496390533058Compare report · PDF page 33 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · NM-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 49| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 49 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 49 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 49 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 58.68110682694488Compare report · PDF page 49 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 41.31889317305512Compare report · PDF page 49 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 17.362213653889768Compare report · PDF page 49 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · NM-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 35| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 35 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 35 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 35 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 67.00442088175869Compare report · PDF page 35 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 32.99557911824132Compare report · PDF page 35 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 34.008841763517374Compare report · PDF page 35 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · NM-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 50| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 50 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 62.41704531319738Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 37.58295468680261Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 24.834090626394776Compare report · PDF page 50 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · NM-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 32| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 32 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 32 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 32 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 61.54034256401339Compare report · PDF page 32 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 38.45965743598661Compare report · PDF page 32 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 23.08068512802678Compare report · PDF page 32 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · NM-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 43| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 43 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 43 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 43 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 63.12467182181861Compare report · PDF page 43 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 36.87532817818139Compare report · PDF page 43 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 26.249343643637214Compare report · PDF page 43 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · NM-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 35| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 35 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 35 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 35 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 56.98526095934303Compare report · PDF page 35 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 43.01473904065697Compare report · PDF page 35 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 13.97052191868606Compare report · PDF page 35 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · NM-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 46| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 46 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 46 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 46 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 65.06070751482392Compare report · PDF page 46 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 34.93929248517607Compare report · PDF page 46 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 30.12141502964785Compare report · PDF page 46 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · NM-03. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 31| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 31 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 31 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 31 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 74.64232170181197Compare report · PDF page 31 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 25.357678298188038Compare report · PDF page 31 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 49.28464340362393Compare report · PDF page 31 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
No records in this sealed run.
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableStored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 3 |
| Boundary geoid | 3503 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 701127 |
| Acs median household income | 62557 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 28.148335706250805 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 6.238909215272535 |
| Acs median age | 40.0 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 54.95609212025781 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 42.97238588729289 |
| Fec receipts dem | 1249948.86 |
| Fec receipts rep | 440623.09 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 666975.48 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 242569.39 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 809325.77 |
| Fec cash advantage | 424406.09 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 3Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 5Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 2Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 48Original report |