Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 2.9 pts to 5.8 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.7 pts to 11.6 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 14.5 pts to 17.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 20.3 pts to 23.2 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.1 pts to 29.0 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 31.9 pts to 34.8 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 37.7 pts to 40.6 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.5 pts to 46.4 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 49.3 pts to 52.2 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.1 pts to 58.0 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 60.9 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · NM-03 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 89.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +12.6 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +31.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026