Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
Polling includes 2 district records and 0 shared statewide records. Duplicate source entries remain visible; these counts are records, not independent polls.
All 12 district evidence items include 4 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | R +11.9 ptsOriginal report |
| PPP poll, 2025-11-21 | R +2.0 pts |
| Democratic win probability | 43.3% |
| 80% margin range | ±15.0 pts |
| Forecast margin | R +0.7 pts |
| Current rating | Toss-up |
| Tipping-point rank | 243 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 4 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | -1.4142014404188004 |
| Statewide house vote lag | 2.309182988077263 |
| Gov margin lag | 10.530545686974278 |
| Sen margin lag | 0.3407811142068624 |
| Boundary geoid | 2604 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 778930 |
| Acs median household income | 74722 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 33.324955533214755 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 4.762576908244463 |
| Acs median age | 37.7 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 22.819252050890327 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 9.123284505668032 |
| Fec receipts dem | 3103923.62 |
| Fec receipts rep | 4093991.01 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 1693536.4200000002 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 2268746.6 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -990067.3899999995 |
| Fec cash advantage | -575210.1799999999 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 13 |
| Lag soft | -11.306969572571678 |
| Lag margin raw | -11.893207358098918 |
| Lag dem share | 0.4405339632095054 |
| Lag rep share | 0.5594660367904946 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | -0.33156520807659473 |
| Lag centered | -10.975404364495082 |
| Abs lag centered | 10.975404364495082 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | 0.33373205013915097 |
| State trend | -2.3420639181897513 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | -11.640701622710829 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 1 |
| Competitive index | 0.43465152137141616 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | -9.343959852714386 |
| Baseline lean effect | -16.500150081565916 |
| Incumbency effect | -6.756420998621746 |
| State environment effect | -0.19057550814566104 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | 2.021950859891666 |
| Pre poll margin | -3.107212880765637 |
| Sigma idio | 2.791518650308156 |
| National component sd | 3.9801416160541794 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 11.739535440056702 |
| Rich prob | 0.4667163748389818 |
| Simple prob | 0.3919592902299956 |
| Raw prob | 0.433075686764938 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 0.8200487386085284 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.433075686764938 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 2.66612344165766 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 2.66612344165766 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 2.66612344165766 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 2.791518650308156 |
| Poll measurement sd | 3.4740860296272507 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.068025794155625 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 0.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 2.7915126823925105 |
| Polling effect | 2.3808687099428836 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.5733970589831485 |
| Poll national shift | 2.38087439740976 |
| Poll state shift | 0.0 |
| Poll district shift | -5.68746687652785e-06 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 2 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -0.7263441708227534 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 36 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | 0.0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll count | 0 |
| District poll margin | -2.0565086611833254 |
| District effective variance | 1000000.0 |
| District poll count | 2 |
| District info weight | 4.275743789361464e-06 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| Raw total sigma | 8.695952177819779 |
| Margin low 80 | -15.771732790799422 |
| Margin high 80 | 14.319044449153917 |
| Tipping point rank | 243 |
| Prob change since last update | 0.00039902357277160627 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · MI-04. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 184641.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 234489.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 419130.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 44.05339632095054Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 55.94660367904946Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -11.89320735809892Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · MI-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 25| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 25 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 25 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 25 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 43.85793557287883Compare report · PDF page 25 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 56.14206442712116Compare report · PDF page 25 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -12.284128854242333Compare report · PDF page 25 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · MI-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 38| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 38 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 38 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 38 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 33.240053601450654Compare report · PDF page 38 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 66.75994639854935Compare report · PDF page 38 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -33.51989279709869Compare report · PDF page 38 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · MI-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 24| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 24 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 24 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 24 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 37.375898965093846Compare report · PDF page 24 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 62.62410103490616Compare report · PDF page 24 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -25.248202069812308Compare report · PDF page 24 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · MI-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 34| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 34 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 34 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 34 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 34.23266598839273Compare report · PDF page 34 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 65.76733401160728Compare report · PDF page 34 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -31.534668023214543Compare report · PDF page 34 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · MI-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 23| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 40.897019629158144Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 59.10298037084185Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -18.205960741683704Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · MI-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 32| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 32 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 32 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 32 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 34.72296631413245Compare report · PDF page 32 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 65.27703368586755Compare report · PDF page 32 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -30.5540673717351Compare report · PDF page 32 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · MI-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 26| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 26 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 26 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 26 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 31.549064699132213Compare report · PDF page 26 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 68.45093530086778Compare report · PDF page 26 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -36.90187060173557Compare report · PDF page 26 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · MI-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 34| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 34 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 34 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 34 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 36.550552304270575Compare report · PDF page 34 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 63.44944769572942Compare report · PDF page 34 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -26.898895391458844Compare report · PDF page 34 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · MI-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 22| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 22 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 22 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 22 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 38.51694768748487Compare report · PDF page 22 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 61.48305231251513Compare report · PDF page 22 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -22.96610462503025Compare report · PDF page 22 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 4.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 559.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 42.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 44.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -2.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.9907430227728957Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 4.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 559.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 42.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 44.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -2.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.9907430227728957Original publication · exact location unavailable |
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableStored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Generated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 4 |
| Boundary geoid | 2604 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 778930 |
| Acs median household income | 74722 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 33.324955533214755 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 4.762576908244463 |
| Acs median age | 37.7 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 22.819252050890327 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 9.123284505668032 |
| Fec receipts dem | 3103923.62 |
| Fec receipts rep | 4093991.01 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 1693536.4200000002 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 2268746.6 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -990067.3899999995 |
| Fec cash advantage | -575210.1799999999 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 4Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 9Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 6Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 36Original report |