Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -30.1 pts to -27.1 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -24.2 pts to -21.3 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -18.3 pts to -15.4 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -12.5 pts to -9.5 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -6.6 pts to -3.7 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -0.7 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 2.2 pts to 5.1 pts | 18.6% |
| 8.1 pts to 11.0 pts | 13.7% |
| 13.9 pts to 16.9 pts | 7.9% |
| 19.8 pts to 22.8 pts | 3.5% |
| 25.7 pts to 28.6 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · MI-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 43.3% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +11.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · R +2.0 pts PPP poll, 2025-11-21 · PPP
R +0.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026