Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
Polling includes 7 district records and 0 shared statewide records. Duplicate source entries remain visible; these counts are records, not independent polls.
All 17 district evidence items include 4 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | D +0.7 ptsOriginal report |
| co/efficient poll, 2026-04-29 | R +10.0 pts |
| Democratic win probability | 77.6% |
| 80% margin range | ±20.0 pts |
| Forecast margin | D +16.7 pts |
| Current rating | Lean Dem |
| Tipping-point rank | 207 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 2 |
| Open seat | 1 |
| Incumbent running | 0 |
| State pres margin lag | 6.846128005678693 |
| Statewide house vote lag | 12.30454920784988 |
| Gov margin lag | 13.163286136620307 |
| Sen margin lag | -23.199916433912165 |
| Boundary geoid | 2302 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 692100 |
| Acs median household income | 64428 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 28.362381668583563 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 4.243617818668156 |
| Acs median age | 45.2 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 8.306025140875594 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 1.9161970813466265 |
| Fec receipts dem | 7975017.52 |
| Fec receipts rep | 2564501.48 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 451204.87 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 1686260.5 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 5410516.039999999 |
| Fec cash advantage | -1235055.63 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 2 |
| Lag soft | 0.44090099438437935 |
| Lag margin raw | 0.4409327423395615 |
| Lag dem share | 0.5022046637116978 |
| Lag rep share | 0.4977953362883022 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | 10.029578543797564 |
| Lag centered | -9.588677549413184 |
| Abs lag centered | 9.588677549413184 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | -4.597981088832276 |
| State trend | -2.9663936649014992 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | 5.038882083216655 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 0 |
| Competitive index | 0.977954950280781 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | 15.261488005803015 |
| Baseline lean effect | -6.563814031215292 |
| Incumbency effect | 2.552519421010741 |
| State environment effect | 2.0867373644724765 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | -1.0609076560244892 |
| Pre poll margin | 13.27234554521107 |
| Sigma idio | 7.383230671361934 |
| National component sd | 5.772884849181547 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 15.613868111712552 |
| Rich prob | 0.9257576593317555 |
| Simple prob | 0.5935012766999873 |
| Raw prob | 0.7762422871474599 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 1.189416708091115 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7762422871474599 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 3.8670040182268117 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 3.8670040182268117 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 3.8670040182268117 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 7.383230671361934 |
| Poll measurement sd | 7.967460960714577 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.999510049251256 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 0.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 7.381285364010227 |
| Polling effect | 3.439172981239713 |
| Polling uncertainty | 5.90182293386265 |
| Poll national shift | 3.4532725371307373 |
| Poll state shift | 0.0 |
| Poll district shift | -0.014099555891024181 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 4 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 16.711518526450785 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 31 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | 0.0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll count | 0 |
| District poll margin | -10.03467488822427 |
| District effective variance | 56739.027100203544 |
| District poll count | 4 |
| District info weight | 0.0005268834652345511 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| Raw total sigma | 11.565828230898186 |
| Margin low 80 | -3.299214845520023 |
| Margin high 80 | 36.72225189842159 |
| Tipping point rank | 207 |
| Prob change since last update | 0.0008115489793921737 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · ME-02. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 197151.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 194445.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 391596.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 50.3455091471823Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 49.6544908528177Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 0.6910182943645964Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · ME-02. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 22| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 22 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 22 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 22 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 52.54354273032899Compare report · PDF page 22 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 47.45645726967101Compare report · PDF page 22 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 5.087085460657974Compare report · PDF page 22 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · ME-02. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 34| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 34 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 34 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 34 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 53.04741132148274Compare report · PDF page 34 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 46.95258867851727Compare report · PDF page 34 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 6.094822642965475Compare report · PDF page 34 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · ME-02. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 20| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 20 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 20 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 20 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 50.12217660637583Compare report · PDF page 20 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 49.87782339362417Compare report · PDF page 20 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 0.2443532127516618Compare report · PDF page 20 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · ME-02. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 29| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 29 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 29 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 29 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 45.19873053395424Compare report · PDF page 29 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 54.80126946604577Compare report · PDF page 29 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -9.602538932091528Compare report · PDF page 29 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · ME-02. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 21| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 21 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 21 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 21 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 47.07171441275487Compare report · PDF page 21 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 52.92828558724513Compare report · PDF page 21 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -5.856571174490256Compare report · PDF page 21 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · ME-02. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 27| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 27 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 27 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 27 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 58.193666830801405Compare report · PDF page 27 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 41.8063331691986Compare report · PDF page 27 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 16.38733366160281Compare report · PDF page 27 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · ME-02. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 23| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 55.131584374097805Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 44.8684156259022Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 10.26316874819561Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · ME-02. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 30| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 30 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 30 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 30 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 67.43537321706373Compare report · PDF page 30 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 32.564626782936266Compare report · PDF page 30 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 34.87074643412746Compare report · PDF page 30 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · ME-02. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 19| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 70.51873470156279Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 29.481265298437204Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 41.037469403125584Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 2.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 918.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 40.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 50.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -10.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.3338001400466832Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 2.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 918.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 40.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 50.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -10.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.3338001400466832Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 2.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 522.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 46.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 47.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.0949223029508643Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 2.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 522.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 46.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 47.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.0949223029508643Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 2.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 387.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 43.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 44.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.5944257734479472Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 2.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 387.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 43.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 44.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.5944257734479472Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 2.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 520.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 47.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 48.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.1008683647302115Original publication · exact location unavailable |
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Generated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 2 |
| Boundary geoid | 2302 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 692100 |
| Acs median household income | 64428 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 28.362381668583563 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 4.243617818668156 |
| Acs median age | 45.2 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 8.306025140875594 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 1.9161970813466265 |
| Fec receipts dem | 7975017.52 |
| Fec receipts rep | 2564501.48 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 451204.87 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 1686260.5 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 5410516.039999999 |
| Fec cash advantage | -1235055.63 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 2Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 10Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 7Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 31Original report |