Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -22.3 pts to -18.4 pts | 1.2% |
| -14.5 pts to -10.6 pts | 3.5% |
| -6.7 pts to -2.8 pts | 7.9% |
| 1.1 pts to 5.0 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 8.9 pts to 12.8 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 16.7 pts to 20.6 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.5 pts to 28.4 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 32.3 pts to 36.2 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 40.1 pts to 44.0 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.9 pts to 51.8 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 55.7 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · ME-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 77.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +0.7 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · R +10.0 pts co/efficient poll, 2026-04-29 · co/efficient
D +16.7 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±20.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026