Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
Polling includes 4 district records and 0 shared statewide records. Duplicate source entries remain visible; these counts are records, not independent polls.
All 14 district evidence items include 4 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | R +0.2 ptsOriginal report |
| The Bullfinch Group poll, 2026-07-16 | D +5.0 pts |
| Democratic win probability | 72.9% |
| 80% margin range | ±15.0 pts |
| Forecast margin | D +8.9 pts |
| Current rating | Lean Dem |
| Tipping-point rank | 213 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | -13.12661625282032 |
| Statewide house vote lag | -12.304537652306209 |
| Gov margin lag | -18.387927335145186 |
| Sen margin lag | -12.042349904422572 |
| Boundary geoid | 1901 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 800735 |
| Acs median household income | 73680 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 32.77803008536235 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 3.609271839558193 |
| Acs median age | 38.9 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 15.056416916957549 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 5.962771703497412 |
| Fec receipts dem | 7770556.55 |
| Fec receipts rep | 7266536.35 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 5430325.5 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 4702335.0 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 504020.2000000002 |
| Fec cash advantage | 727990.5 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 4 |
| Lag soft | -0.19340780814367728 |
| Lag margin raw | -0.19341048773816594 |
| Lag dem share | 0.4990329475613091 |
| Lag rep share | 0.5009670524386908 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | -10.746668177801446 |
| Lag centered | 10.55326036965777 |
| Abs lag centered | 10.55326036965777 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | 6.500528111535198 |
| State trend | -0.5079213892121626 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | -6.693935919678875 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 1 |
| Competitive index | 0.9903296095928161 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | 4.797684727780141 |
| Baseline lean effect | 4.884195313016967 |
| Incumbency effect | -6.756420998621746 |
| State environment effect | -10.628366185316674 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | -1.1731390031909894 |
| Pre poll margin | 6.6281087102196246 |
| Sigma idio | 2.6847249454739175 |
| National component sd | 3.9205063169498713 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 11.673814730925544 |
| Rich prob | 0.8486351006018433 |
| Simple prob | 0.5827689599327561 |
| Raw prob | 0.7289953373007542 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 0.807761775850778 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.7289953373007542 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 2.626176353279964 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 2.626176353279964 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 2.626176353279964 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 2.6847249454739175 |
| Poll measurement sd | 3.3655270129173074 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.037040128647532 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 0.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 2.6790370637517764 |
| Polling effect | 2.2837428103459074 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.4929829725313386 |
| Poll national shift | 2.3452012554676194 |
| Poll state shift | 0.0 |
| Poll district shift | -0.06145844512171193 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 3 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 8.911851520565532 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 27 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | 0.0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll count | 0 |
| District poll margin | 4.999999999998907 |
| District effective variance | 254.60139857554933 |
| District poll count | 3 |
| District info weight | 0.015467820445029035 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| Raw total sigma | 8.647270171055958 |
| Margin low 80 | -6.0493094385886454 |
| Margin high 80 | 23.873012479719712 |
| Tipping point rank | 213 |
| Prob change since last update | 0.002360832305043803 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · IA-01. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 206156.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 206955.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 413111.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 49.90329475613092Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 50.09670524386908Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -0.1934104877381628Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · IA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 19| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 46.59576560041951Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 53.404234399580496Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -6.808468799160984Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · IA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 28| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 28 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 28 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 28 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 48.7010049947392Compare report · PDF page 28 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 51.29899500526081Compare report · PDF page 28 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -2.597990010521606Compare report · PDF page 28 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · IA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 18| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 18 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 18 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 18 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 52.60976453438094Compare report · PDF page 18 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 47.39023546561906Compare report · PDF page 18 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 5.219529068761887Compare report · PDF page 18 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · IA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 24| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 24 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 24 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 24 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 46.25575034352701Compare report · PDF page 24 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 53.74424965647299Compare report · PDF page 24 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -7.488499312945976Compare report · PDF page 24 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · IA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 18| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 18 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 18 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 18 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 48.85482179386446Compare report · PDF page 18 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 51.14517820613553Compare report · PDF page 18 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -2.2903564122710733Compare report · PDF page 18 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · IA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 23| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 23 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 57.788909472130776Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 42.21109052786922Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 15.577818944261558Compare report · PDF page 23 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · IA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 20| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 20 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 20 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 20 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 51.02835614497159Compare report · PDF page 20 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 48.97164385502841Compare report · PDF page 20 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 2.056712289943178Compare report · PDF page 20 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · IA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 24| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 24 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 24 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 24 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 64.60664063849636Compare report · PDF page 24 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 35.39335936150365Compare report · PDF page 24 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 29.21328127699271Compare report · PDF page 24 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · IA-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 17| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 56.02618953104861Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 43.97381046895139Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 12.052379062097216Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 705.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 40.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 35.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 5.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.6631182064565375Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 705.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 40.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 35.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 5.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.6631182064565375Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 555.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 43.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 39.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 4.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.001501125938321Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 555.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 43.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 39.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | 4.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.001501125938321Original publication · exact location unavailable |
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1 |
| Boundary geoid | 1901 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 800735 |
| Acs median household income | 73680 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 32.77803008536235 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 3.609271839558193 |
| Acs median age | 38.9 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 15.056416916957549 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 5.962771703497412 |
| Fec receipts dem | 7770556.55 |
| Fec receipts rep | 7266536.35 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 5430325.5 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 4702335.0 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 504020.2000000002 |
| Fec cash advantage | 727990.5 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 11Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 8Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 27Original report |