Published · Updates are manual.
81.2% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -20.3 pts to -17.4 pts | 1.2% |
| -14.4 pts to -11.5 pts | 3.5% |
| -8.6 pts to -5.7 pts | 7.9% |
| -2.8 pts | 6.1% |
| 0.2 pts to 3.1 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 6.0 pts to 8.9 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 11.8 pts to 14.7 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 17.7 pts to 20.6 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 23.5 pts to 26.4 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 29.3 pts to 32.3 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.2 pts to 38.1 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · IA-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 72.9% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +0.2 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · D +5.0 pts The Bullfinch Group poll, 2026-07-16 · The Bullfinch Group
D +8.9 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026