Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
Polling includes 4 district records and 0 shared statewide records. Duplicate source entries remain visible; these counts are records, not independent polls.
All 14 district evidence items include 4 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | R +20.8 ptsOriginal report |
| Blueprint Polling poll, 2026-03-08 | R +7.0 pts |
| Democratic win probability | 16.4% |
| 80% margin range | ±15.0 pts |
| Forecast margin | R +13.2 pts |
| Current rating | Likely Rep |
| Tipping-point rank | 304 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 27 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | -13.100050377500793 |
| Statewide house vote lag | -18.62298671740833 |
| Gov margin lag | -19.403160228936898 |
| Sen margin lag | -12.778416922706803 |
| Boundary geoid | 1227 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 764988 |
| Acs median household income | 78952 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 43.64046135489858 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 3.791438945517124 |
| Acs median age | 41.8 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 69.6752105915387 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 73.53866988763222 |
| Fec receipts dem | 2536722.08 |
| Fec receipts rep | 2182962.67 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 475379.46 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 2332040.39 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 353759.41000000015 |
| Fec cash advantage | -1856660.93 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 28 |
| Lag soft | -17.972248083879677 |
| Lag margin raw | -20.751090591056396 |
| Lag dem share | 0.396244547044718 |
| Lag rep share | 0.603755452955282 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | -9.524787850746025 |
| Lag centered | -8.447460233133652 |
| Abs lag centered | 8.447460233133652 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | -4.436153369481454 |
| State trend | 1.7564001891350873 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | -13.536094714398223 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 1 |
| Competitive index | 0.1013875958060162 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | -19.87599732601283 |
| Baseline lean effect | -18.38266222007729 |
| Incumbency effect | -6.756420998621746 |
| State environment effect | -12.369279494765888 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | -1.5072277919414983 |
| Pre poll margin | -15.621725421101068 |
| Sigma idio | 2.2100065163912053 |
| National component sd | 4.015907456570552 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 11.728953714756585 |
| Rich prob | 0.06402286980360168 |
| Simple prob | 0.28637339573548776 |
| Raw prob | 0.16408060647295042 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 0.827417755902391 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.16408060647295042 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 2.6900814197925746 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 2.6900814197925746 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 2.6900814197925746 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 2.2100065163912053 |
| Poll measurement sd | 3.8211333880638296 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.0866092235590346 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 1.7196370190880066 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 2.6999946000162 |
| Polling effect | 2.3996870905100534 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.8304691763435774 |
| Poll national shift | 2.402269106995921 |
| Poll state shift | -0.0026069046373095924 |
| Poll district shift | 2.4888151442060582e-05 |
| State environment poll count | 10 |
| Direct house poll count | 2 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -13.222038330591015 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 18 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 6 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | -0.0026069046373095924 |
| State environment shift | -0.0026069046373095924 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll margin | -7.89613130366516 |
| Environment effective variance | 253.52807591031248 |
| Environment poll count | 10 |
| District poll margin | -7.000000470075871 |
| District effective variance | 1000000.0 |
| District poll count | 2 |
| District info weight | 3.999983999913859e-06 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll margin | -7.89613130366516 |
| Raw total sigma | 8.688113862782656 |
| Margin low 80 | -28.253865411423057 |
| Margin high 80 | 1.809788750241026 |
| Tipping point rank | 304 |
| Prob change since last update | 0.001147913105718379 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · FL-27. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 130708.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 199159.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 329867.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 39.6244547044718Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 60.3755452955282Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -20.7510905910564Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · FL-27. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 14| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 42.70685051507315Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 57.29314948492684Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -14.586298969853694Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · FL-27. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 19| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 48.63181286617925Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 51.36818713382074Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -2.7363742676414877Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · FL-27. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 13| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 53.07614551152717Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 46.92385448847283Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 6.152291023054346Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · FL-27. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 17| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 45.106143348269065Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 54.893856651730935Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -9.78771330346187Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · FL-27. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 13| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 0.0Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 100.0Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -100.0Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · FL-27. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 16| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 16 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 16 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 16 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 38.03890688476475Compare report · PDF page 16 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 61.96109311523524Compare report · PDF page 16 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -23.92218623047049Compare report · PDF page 16 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 27.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 451.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 40.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 47.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -7.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.3296357910601344Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 27.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 451.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 40.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 47.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -7.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.3296357910601344Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 27.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 804.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 35.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 45.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -10.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.4937733402690823Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 27.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 804.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 35.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 45.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -10.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.4937733402690823Original publication · exact location unavailable |
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 27 |
| Boundary geoid | 1227 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 764988 |
| Acs median household income | 78952 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 43.64046135489858 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 3.791438945517124 |
| Acs median age | 41.8 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 69.6752105915387 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 73.53866988763222 |
| Fec receipts dem | 2536722.08 |
| Fec receipts rep | 2182962.67 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 475379.46 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 2332040.39 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 353759.41000000015 |
| Fec cash advantage | -1856660.93 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 27Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 10Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 6Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 7Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 18Original report |