Published · Updates are manual.
87.3% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -42.5 pts to -39.6 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -36.7 pts to -33.7 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -30.8 pts to -27.9 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -25.0 pts to -22.0 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -19.1 pts to -16.2 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -13.2 pts to -10.3 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -7.4 pts to -4.4 pts | 16.5% (short of Even) |
| -1.5 pts | 6.1% (short of Even) |
| 1.4 pts to 4.4 pts | 7.9% |
| 7.3 pts to 10.2 pts | 3.5% |
| 13.2 pts to 16.1 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · FL-27 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 16.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +20.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · R +7.0 pts Blueprint Polling poll, 2026-03-08 · Blueprint Polling
R +13.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±15.0 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026