Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
No direct polling records are stored for this race. Its forecast still has model calculations and historical inputs to inspect.
All 8 district evidence items include 2 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | R +12.4 ptsOriginal report |
| Democratic win probability | 27.6% |
| 80% margin range | ±14.6 pts |
| Forecast margin | R +7.5 pts |
| Current rating | Lean Rep |
| Tipping-point rank | 274 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | -13.100050377500793 |
| Statewide house vote lag | -18.62298671740833 |
| Gov margin lag | -19.403160228936898 |
| Sen margin lag | -12.778416922706803 |
| Boundary geoid | 1215 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 813472 |
| Acs median household income | 71624 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 33.89032383391731 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 4.550353720433479 |
| Acs median age | 38.5 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 45.647914126116206 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 27.46548129499233 |
| Fec receipts dem | 62337.54 |
| Fec receipts rep | 2346664.45 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 8587.27 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 1960681.6 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -2284326.91 |
| Fec cash advantage | -1952094.33 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 28 |
| Lag soft | -11.704573601827853 |
| Lag margin raw | -12.35939544715915 |
| Lag dem share | 0.4382030227642042 |
| Lag rep share | 0.5617969772357957 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | -9.524787850746025 |
| Lag centered | -2.1797857510818286 |
| Abs lag centered | 2.1797857510818286 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | 3.746362999587232 |
| State trend | 1.7564001891350873 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | -15.450936601415085 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 1 |
| Competitive index | 0.4147713199086074 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | -14.53536381003127 |
| Baseline lean effect | -13.042028704095738 |
| Incumbency effect | -6.756420998621746 |
| State environment effect | -12.369279494765888 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | -1.5072277919414983 |
| Pre poll margin | -9.910275518691401 |
| Sigma idio | 2.0250000000000004 |
| National component sd | 3.9822751566519083 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 11.371084309938293 |
| Rich prob | 0.18564357152080824 |
| Simple prob | 0.3853332483947874 |
| Raw prob | 0.27550392611409885 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 0.8204883227853528 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.27550392611409885 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 2.667552607539193 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 2.667552607539193 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 2.667552607539193 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 2.0250000000000004 |
| Poll measurement sd | 2.690440195175194 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.069134351944419 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 1.7196370190880066 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 0.0 |
| Polling effect | 2.379543751929782 |
| Polling uncertainty | 1.9929186630927362 |
| Poll national shift | 2.3821506565670916 |
| Poll state shift | -0.0026069046373095924 |
| Poll district shift | 0.0 |
| State environment poll count | 10 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | -7.530731766761619 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 17 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | -0.0026069046373095924 |
| State environment shift | -0.0026069046373095924 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll margin | -7.89613130366516 |
| Environment effective variance | 253.52807591031248 |
| Environment poll count | 10 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| District info weight | 0.0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| State environment poll margin | -7.89613130366516 |
| Raw total sigma | 8.423025414769105 |
| Margin low 80 | -22.10391341837854 |
| Margin high 80 | 7.0424498848553 |
| Tipping point rank | 274 |
| Prob change since last update | 0.001708033003073317 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · FL-15. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 152361.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 195334.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 347695.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 43.82030227642043Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 56.17969772357957Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -12.359395447159145Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · FL-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 13| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 41.456698944584645Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 58.54330105541536Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -17.08660211083071Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · FL-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 19| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 19 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 44.61477816372344Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 55.38522183627656Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -10.770443672553114Compare report · PDF page 19 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · FL-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 12| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 46.97946145871277Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 53.02053854128723Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -6.041077082574461Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · FL-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 16| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 16 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 16 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 16 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 42.53879437567902Compare report · PDF page 16 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 57.461205624320975Compare report · PDF page 16 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -14.922411248641955Compare report · PDF page 16 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · FL-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 12| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 39.718702886947405Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 60.2812971130526Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -20.5625942261052Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · FL-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 15| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 15 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 15 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 15 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 0.0Compare report · PDF page 15 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 100.0Compare report · PDF page 15 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -100.0Compare report · PDF page 15 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · FL-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 14| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 35.27159893519701Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 64.72840106480298Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -29.45680212960597Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · FL-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 16| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 16 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 16 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 16 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 44.15870875496219Compare report · PDF page 16 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 55.84129124503781Compare report · PDF page 16 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -11.682582490075616Compare report · PDF page 16 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · FL-15. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 12| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 43.71511937050657Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 56.28488062949343Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -12.569761258986858Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
No records in this sealed run.
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableStored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15 |
| Boundary geoid | 1215 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 813472 |
| Acs median household income | 71624 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 33.89032383391731 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 4.550353720433479 |
| Acs median age | 38.5 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 45.647914126116206 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 27.46548129499233 |
| Fec receipts dem | 62337.54 |
| Fec receipts rep | 2346664.45 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 8587.27 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 1960681.6 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -2284326.91 |
| Fec cash advantage | -1952094.33 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 15Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 8Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 5Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 17Original report |