Published · Updates are manual.
73.7% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -36.0 pts to -33.1 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -30.3 pts to -27.4 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -24.6 pts to -21.7 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -18.9 pts to -16.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -13.2 pts to -10.4 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -7.5 pts to -4.7 pts | 19.8% (short of Even) |
| -1.8 pts | 8.9% (short of Even) |
| 1.0 pts to 3.8 pts | 13.7% |
| 6.7 pts to 9.5 pts | 7.9% |
| 12.4 pts to 15.2 pts | 3.5% |
| 18.1 pts to 20.9 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · FL-15 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 27.6% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +12.4 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +7.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.6 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026