Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
No direct polling records are stored for this race. Its forecast still has model calculations and historical inputs to inspect.
All 8 district evidence items include 2 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | D +24.1 ptsOriginal report |
| Democratic win probability | 93.8% |
| 80% margin range | ±14.9 pts |
| Forecast margin | D +41.8 pts |
| Current rating | Likely Dem |
| Tipping-point rank | 109 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 4 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | 14.504465580070608 |
| Statewide house vote lag | 15.47182346547472 |
| Gov margin lag | 12.85147974451317 |
| Sen margin lag | 18.875299354488995 |
| Boundary geoid | 904 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 728656 |
| Acs median household income | 119442 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 53.837677270985054 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 5.897980736842372 |
| Acs median age | 40.4 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 41.27201313102479 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 22.812273555697065 |
| Fec receipts dem | 1379560.48 |
| Fec receipts rep | 68953.78 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 2517676.77 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 38236.35999999999 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 1310606.7 |
| Fec cash advantage | 2479440.41 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 5 |
| Lag soft | 19.979336818278693 |
| Lag margin raw | 24.10440565664558 |
| Lag dem share | 0.6205220282832279 |
| Lag rep share | 0.3794779717167721 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | 15.939736839792483 |
| Lag centered | 4.03959997848621 |
| Abs lag centered | 4.03959997848621 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | 3.290308487527838 |
| State trend | 2.1657876159462432 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | 16.689028330750855 |
| Inc dem | 1 |
| Inc rep | 0 |
| Competitive index | 0.0010331590860653828 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | 43.18731631537369 |
| Baseline lean effect | 13.952255522281424 |
| Incumbency effect | 5.5821991525536525 |
| State environment effect | 7.281105165134948 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | -0.24661887989305908 |
| Pre poll margin | 38.65750563664263 |
| Sigma idio | 2.0250000000000004 |
| National component sd | 5.239769948662628 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 11.605114053352183 |
| Rich prob | 0.999999417697176 |
| Simple prob | 0.861273360837816 |
| Raw prob | 0.9375726921104641 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 1.0795763446375752 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.9375726921104641 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 3.509893575815073 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Adjusted national sd | 3.509893575815073 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 3.509893575815073 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 2.0250000000000004 |
| Poll measurement sd | 2.7225110195999385 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.7225110195999385 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 0.0 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 0.0 |
| Polling effect | 3.1343694075527804 |
| Polling uncertainty | 2.0166748293332875 |
| Poll national shift | 3.1343694075527804 |
| Poll state shift | 0.0 |
| Poll district shift | 0.0 |
| State environment poll count | 0 |
| Direct house poll count | 0 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 41.791875044195415 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 15 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | 0.0 |
| Combined state shift | 0.0 |
| State environment shift | 0.0 |
| State posterior var | 108.12656902391349 |
| State info weight | 0.0 |
| N polls | 0 |
| Environment poll count | 0 |
| District poll count | 0 |
| District info weight | 0.0 |
| State poll count | 0 |
| Raw total sigma | 8.596380780260876 |
| Margin low 80 | 26.918760873419256 |
| Margin high 80 | 56.66498921497157 |
| Tipping point rank | 109 |
| Prob change since last update | -5.159507265872776e-09 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · CT-04. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 200791.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 122793.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 323584.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 62.052202828322784Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 37.947797171677216Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 24.104405656645568Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · CT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 12| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 59.4119042374748Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 40.5880957625252Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 18.8238084749496Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · CT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 17| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 17 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 63.20977640335832Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 36.79022359664169Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 26.41955280671663Compare report · PDF page 17 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · CT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 11| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 11 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 11 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 11 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 61.210896545219065Compare report · PDF page 11 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 38.789103454780935Compare report · PDF page 11 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 22.42179309043813Compare report · PDF page 11 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · CT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 14| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 59.90112746583316Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 40.09887253416685Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 19.80225493166631Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · CT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 11| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 11 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 11 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 11 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 53.76040644885435Compare report · PDF page 11 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 46.23959355114565Compare report · PDF page 11 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 7.520812897708694Compare report · PDF page 11 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · CT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 13| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 13 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 59.95562856130211Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 40.04437143869789Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 19.911257122604223Compare report · PDF page 13 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · CT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 12| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 12 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 53.06397523242602Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 46.93602476757398Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 6.127950464852034Compare report · PDF page 12 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · CT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 14| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 14 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 51.90302919146232Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 48.09697080853768Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 3.806058382924647Compare report · PDF page 14 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · CT-04. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 11| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 11 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 11 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 11 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 48.28607496601282Compare report · PDF page 11 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 51.71392503398719Compare report · PDF page 11 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -3.4278500679743686Compare report · PDF page 11 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
No records in this sealed run.
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableStored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 4 |
| Boundary geoid | 904 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 728656 |
| Acs median household income | 119442 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 53.837677270985054 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 5.897980736842372 |
| Acs median age | 40.4 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 41.27201313102479 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 22.812273555697065 |
| Fec receipts dem | 1379560.48 |
| Fec receipts rep | 68953.78 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 2517676.77 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 38236.35999999999 |
| Fec receipt advantage | 1310606.7 |
| Fec cash advantage | 2479440.41 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 4Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 11Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 8Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 15Original report |