Published · Updates are manual.
100.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| 12.8 pts to 15.7 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.6 pts to 21.5 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 24.4 pts to 27.3 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 30.2 pts to 33.1 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 36.0 pts to 38.9 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 41.8 pts to 44.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 47.6 pts to 50.5 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 53.4 pts to 56.3 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 59.2 pts to 62.1 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 65.0 pts to 67.9 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 70.8 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · CT-04 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 93.8% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: D +24.1 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +41.8 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±14.9 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026