Published · Updates are manual.
Internal audit sheet
Click a number for its recorded value and calculation. Report links open the publisher’s PDF page or highlighted passage. On PDFs, find the district and year shown beside the link; page links do not highlight individual numbers.
Archived run: 2026-09-05T21:19:09.000Z · dailysealed.d8c334b3740f552d552fdc7b
Polling includes 5 district records and 1 shared statewide records. Duplicate source entries remain visible; these counts are records, not independent polls.
All 15 district evidence items include 4 generated audit notes. 0 original-source records lack a public document URL.
Page links locate evidence; matching compared counts does not certify election stage, voting round, or district boundaries. External availability is not checked when this page loads. Historical comparison reviewed 2026-09-06T00:19:39.546615+00:00.
These use the same values, formatting and receipts as this race or place’s dashboard.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| 2024 certified result | R +1.0 ptsOriginal report |
| The Bullfinch Group poll, 2026-07-16 | R +14.0 pts |
| Democratic win probability | 61.2% |
| 80% margin range | ±22.1 pts |
| Forecast margin | D +5.2 pts |
| Current rating | Toss-up |
| Tipping-point rank | 236 |
Exact stored values before display rounding. Probabilities marked as fractions range from zero to one. Open a value for its source cell and calculation explanation.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1 |
| Open seat | 0 |
| Incumbent running | 1 |
| State pres margin lag | -13.13868181455274 |
| Statewide house vote lag | 2.39072399091525 |
| Gov margin lag | -30.558251690982438 |
| Sen margin lag | -85.23550561450739 |
| Boundary geoid | 200 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 735706 |
| Acs median household income | 92788 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 31.66962931554657 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 5.852633921740461 |
| Acs median age | 35.8 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 40.44115448290485 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 7.313111487469179 |
| Fec receipts dem | 1017738.16 |
| Fec receipts rep | 5470446.24 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 474164.09 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 3119157.79 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -4452708.08 |
| Fec cash advantage | -2644993.7 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
| Year | 2026 |
| District count | 1 |
| Lag soft | -1.7754737201918003 |
| Lag margin raw | -1.7775509904098374 |
| Lag dem share | 0.4911122450479508 |
| Lag rep share | 0.5088877549520492 |
| Matched exact | 1 |
| Prev state mean | -1.7754737201918003 |
| Lag centered | 0.0 |
| Abs lag centered | 0.0 |
| Lag dem zero | 0 |
| Lag rep zero | 0 |
| Unmatched | 0 |
| District trend | -4.176511949477402 |
| State trend | -4.176511949477402 |
| Trend available | 1 |
| National house swing lag | -0.4167640604977936 |
| Two cycle soft | 2.401038229285602 |
| Inc dem | 0 |
| Inc rep | 1 |
| Competitive index | 0.91122631399041 |
| Midterm | 1 |
| Dem president | 0 |
| Rep president | 1 |
| Dem president midterm | 0 |
| Rep president midterm | 1 |
| Dem president first midterm | 0 |
| Rep president first midterm | 1 |
| Lag national house margin | -2.6040347778148756 |
| Structured margin | -0.9375428623251976 |
| Baseline lean effect | -3.8741407153319085 |
| Incumbency effect | -6.756420998621746 |
| State environment effect | -4.392465263239483 |
| National environment effect | 16.1251375955106 |
| National environment prior effect | 5.0 |
| State bias effect | 2.039653480642667 |
| Pre poll margin | 5.766938275170828 |
| Sigma idio | 2.0250000000000004 |
| National component sd | 3.9289956721959736 |
| State component sd | 10.528372525035449 |
| Total sigma | 17.22790873602786 |
| Rich prob | 0.6573272274441351 |
| Simple prob | 0.5557477478526023 |
| Raw prob | 0.6116164616279454 |
| Stability weight | 0.45 |
| National sd | 4.793622476523633 |
| State sd | 10.398392617318962 |
| National elasticity | 0.8095108807150586 |
| Learned national shift intercept | 0.36124284958203356 |
| Learned national shift coef | 0.3719046818739598 |
| Learned national shift rmse | 1.970433128460146 |
| Democratic win probability (fraction) | 0.6116164616279454 |
| Adjusted national component sd | 2.6318630024521688 |
| Adjusted state component sd | 10.118199038576627 |
| Adjusted national sd | 2.6318630024521688 |
| Adjusted state sd | 10.118199038576627 |
| Uncertainty national sd | 2.6318630024521688 |
| Uncertainty state sd | 10.118199038576627 |
| Uncertainty idiosyncratic sd | 2.0250000000000004 |
| Poll measurement sd | 13.54236167619871 |
| Poll measurement national sd | 2.041451078638325 |
| Poll measurement state sd | 13.113668365361946 |
| Poll measurement district sd | 2.694390332859601 |
| Polling effect | -0.596274503926311 |
| Polling uncertainty | 10.031379019406451 |
| Poll national shift | 2.3502794889843455 |
| Poll state shift | -2.866647463314248 |
| Poll district shift | -0.07990652959640868 |
| State environment poll count | 12 |
| Direct house poll count | 5 |
| Forecast Democratic margin (points) | 5.170663771244517 |
| Calibration delta | 0.0 |
| Uncertainty multiplier | 1.35 |
| Official snapshot valid | 1 |
| Official government linked monte carlo | 1 |
| Government data score | 86 |
| Official best source pdf page | 4 |
| Official conflict count | 0 |
| Official past election rows | 1 |
| Official fallback past election rows | 9 |
| National poll margin | 5.62905603286126 |
| National poll count | 542 |
| National poll gap | 8.233090810676135 |
| Poll national base shift | 2.903332796352647 |
| State shift | -2.8162570202752777 |
| Combined state shift | -2.866647463314248 |
| State environment shift | -0.050390443038970056 |
| State posterior var | 94.35846254962668 |
| State info weight | 0.12733324102091714 |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -13.999999999999998 |
| N polls | 1 |
| Environment poll margin | 1.2685425900219691 |
| Environment effective variance | 10.872974732667778 |
| Environment poll count | 12 |
| District poll margin | -13.99941210367704 |
| District effective variance | 959.6250004471793 |
| District poll count | 4 |
| District info weight | 0.0041509923446815256 |
| State poll count | 1 |
| State environment poll margin | 1.2685425900219691 |
| Raw total sigma | 12.761413878539155 |
| Margin low 80 | -16.90862406484879 |
| Margin high 80 | 27.249951607337824 |
| Tipping point rank | 236 |
| Prob change since last update | 0.0852985293056846 |
Every stored result for this district, including fallback records. Source cells preserve the original cycle and row; receipts explain transformations and any dated document comparison.
2024 · AK-01. Compared Democratic and Republican counts match. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | 156245.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Republican votes | 159550.0Original report Sum of assigned candidate vote lines. The original report shows the inputs. |
| Stored vote total | 315795.0Original report Calculated: dem_votes + rep_votes. Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic share (%) | 49.47671749077725Original report Calculated: 100 * dem_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Republican share (%) | 50.52328250922275Original report Calculated: 100 * rep_votes / (dem_votes + rep_votes). Original report supplies the inputs. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -1.0465650184455058Original report Calculated: dem_share - rep_share. Original report supplies the inputs. |
2022 · AK-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 4| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 51.20309233539627Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 48.79690766460373Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | 2.406184670792541Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
2020 · AK-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 4| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 45.41595877061895Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 54.58404122938105Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -9.1680824587621Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
2018 · AK-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 3| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 3 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 3 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 3 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 46.69369132102869Compare report · PDF page 3 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 53.306308678971305Compare report · PDF page 3 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -6.612617357942618Compare report · PDF page 3 Source transformation requires review. |
2016 · AK-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 4| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 41.71968418718786Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 58.28031581281215Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -16.56063162562429Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
2014 · AK-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 3| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 3 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 3 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 3 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 44.5620474853601Compare report · PDF page 3 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 55.437952514639896Compare report · PDF page 3 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -10.875905029279792Compare report · PDF page 3 Source transformation requires review. |
2012 · AK-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 4| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 30.9171845814863Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 69.0828154185137Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -38.16563083702741Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
2010 · AK-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 4| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 30.675520771572Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 69.324479228428Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -38.64895845685601Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
2008 · AK-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 4| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 4 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 47.28373891787369Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 52.7162610821263Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -5.43252216425261Compare report · PDF page 4 Source transformation requires review. |
2006 · AK-01. Comparison pages located; the result still requires review. Election stage and voting round are not certified.
Compare report · PDF page 3| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Democratic votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 3 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Republican votes | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 3 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Stored vote total | UnavailableCompare report · PDF page 3 Value absent from the stored record. |
| Democratic share (%) | 41.42536911685538Compare report · PDF page 3 Source transformation requires review. |
| Republican share (%) | 58.57463088314462Compare report · PDF page 3 Source transformation requires review. |
| Democratic margin (points) | -17.149261766289243Compare report · PDF page 3 Source transformation requires review. |
The sealed polling inventory for this race, with any shared statewide House polls explicitly labeled by their stored scope.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| Sample size | 546.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 32.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 46.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -14.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.026137663344012Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 546.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 32.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 46.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -14.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 3.026137663344012Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 600.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 39.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 46.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -7.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.886751345948129Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailable| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Sample size | 600.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 39.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Republican poll response (%) | 46.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -7.0Original publication · exact location unavailable |
| Poll se | 2.886751345948129Original publication · exact location unavailable |
The dated review locates the question and responses. It does not certify the complete poll record. Document reviewed 2026-09-05T17:25:59Z. PDF page 6. U.S. House question; Topline column, Matt Schultz and Nick Begich rows. Open the receipt for the reviewed document identity.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1.0Original report |
| Sample size | 823.0Original report |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 37.0Original report |
| Republican poll response (%) | 48.0Original report |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -11.0Original report |
| Poll se | 2.4648192922358194Original report |
The dated review locates the question and responses. It does not certify the complete poll record. Document reviewed 2026-09-05T17:25:59Z. PDF page 6. U.S. House question; Topline column, Matt Schultz and Nick Begich rows. Open the receipt for the reviewed document identity.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1.0Original report |
| Sample size | 823.0Original report |
| Democratic poll response (%) | 37.0Original report |
| Republican poll response (%) | 48.0Original report |
| Poll Democratic margin (points) | -11.0Original report |
| Poll se | 2.4648192922358194Original report |
Every evidence item stored for this exact race. Original publications and generated audit notes retain separate receipts. No unverified page or text anchor is invented.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableStored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableStored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableThe original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableStored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original reportGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original reportGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
These House evidence items apply statewide. They are shown separately and do not count as district-specific evidence.
The original publication is available as a link. An exact record location has not been established.
Original publication · exact location unavailableGenerated audit metadata. Its receipt identifies the exact stored item; underlying original records are listed separately.
Original publication · exact location unavailableOpen each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1 |
| Boundary geoid | 200 |
| Acs source year | 2024 |
| Acs total population | 735706 |
| Acs median household income | 92788 |
| Acs bachelors or higher pct | 31.66962931554657 |
| Acs unemployment pct | 5.852633921740461 |
| Acs median age | 35.8 |
| Acs nonwhite pct | 40.44115448290485 |
| Acs hispanic pct | 7.313111487469179 |
| Fec receipts dem | 1017738.16 |
| Fec receipts rep | 5470446.24 |
| Fec cash on hand dem | 474164.09 |
| Fec cash on hand rep | 3119157.79 |
| Fec receipt advantage | -4452708.08 |
| Fec cash advantage | -2644993.7 |
| Official fundamentals source count | 3 |
Open each stored number for its exact field and available original-source links. Missing inputs are not zero.
Stored document location; question and record content have not received a dated review.
Original report| Field | Value · click to trace |
|---|---|
| District num | 1Original report |
| Government data score | 86Original report |
| Official record rows | 16Original report |
| Official past election rows | 1Original report |
| Fallback past election rows | 9Original report |
| Certified result rows | 0Original report |
| House clerk cycles | 2024Original report |
| Federal disclosure rows | 13Original report |
| Boundary rows | 2Original report |
| Conflict count | 0Original report |
| Required certified cycles | 2024Original report |
| Has state certified result | 0Original report |
| Has federal disclosure | 1Original report |
| Has current boundary | 1Original report |
| Has aggregator fallback | 1Original report |
| Best source pdf page | 4Original report |