Published · Updates are manual.
64.8% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -37.9 pts to -33.6 pts | 1.2% |
| -29.3 pts to -25.0 pts | 3.5% |
| -20.7 pts to -16.4 pts | 7.9% |
| -12.1 pts to -7.8 pts | 13.7% |
| -3.4 pts | 8.9% |
| 0.9 pts to 5.2 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 9.5 pts to 13.8 pts | 18.6% (at or beyond Even) |
| 18.1 pts to 22.4 pts | 13.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 26.7 pts to 31.0 pts | 7.9% (at or beyond Even) |
| 35.3 pts to 39.6 pts | 3.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 43.9 pts to 48.2 pts | 1.2% (at or beyond Even) |
Published model read · AK-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 61.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +1.0 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics · R +14.0 pts The Bullfinch Group poll, 2026-07-16 · The Bullfinch Group
D +5.2 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±22.1 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026