Sources
Metric
This page explains the dashboard number before it shows the audit materials. The source websites verify the inputs; the forecast engine computes the output.
You are tracing State in the State forecast receipt.
This receipt doesn't pin a single row, so it opens here at the metric — the math and public sources below show how it was built.
A source link can verify an input, but it cannot explain a forecast output by itself. Official sites verify the raw inputs, the model computes district margins and probabilities, Monte Carlo counts simulated paths, and calibration checks whether the math behaved well on past elections.
Dashboard metric
state
This is the number the user clicked on the dashboard.
Sealed run value
AK
This is the value found in the sealed daily output for the matching metric.
Public source shelf
4 links
Public websites are shown below as verification sources, not as a replacement for the model math.
Identify the metric
state
The route carries the same field name the dashboard used to request evidence.
Match the sealed row
AK
The page finds the row that matches the district or summary metric, then highlights the clicked value.
Inputs are verified
Official sites and polling APIs support the inputs.
Model computes the output
If the clicked number is a forecast output, it comes from the model or Monte Carlo, not directly from an external website.
Audit row remains available
Analysts can still inspect the technical row without making the public page feel like a spreadsheet.