55.0% of simulated outcomes land at or beyond the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -263 pts to -236 pts | 1.2% |
| -209 pts to -181 pts | 3.5% |
| -154 pts to -127 pts | 7.9% |
| -100 pts to -72.9 pts | 13.7% |
| -45.8 pts to -18.6 pts | 18.6% |
| 8.5 pts to 35.7 pts | 19.8% (at or beyond Even) |
| 62.8 pts to 90.0 pts | 16.5% (at or beyond Even) |
| 117 pts to 144 pts | 10.7% (at or beyond Even) |
| 171 pts to 199 pts | 5.4% (at or beyond Even) |
| 226 pts to 253 pts | 2.2% (at or beyond Even) |
| 280 pts | 0.4% (at or beyond Even) |
Live model read · VA-02 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Democrat wins · the 53.2% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +3.9 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
D +8.5 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.2 pts of it.MethodologyVerify the mathStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Aug 26, 2026