Published · Updates are manual.
55.0% of simulated outcomes land short of the Even line.
| Outcome | Share of simulations |
|---|---|
| -272 pts to -245 pts | 1.2% (short of Even) |
| -218 pts to -191 pts | 3.5% (short of Even) |
| -164 pts to -136 pts | 7.9% (short of Even) |
| -109 pts to -82.1 pts | 13.7% (short of Even) |
| -54.9 pts to -27.8 pts | 18.6% (short of Even) |
| -0.6 pts | 10.1% (short of Even) |
| 26.6 pts to 53.7 pts | 18.6% |
| 80.9 pts to 108 pts | 13.7% |
| 135 pts to 162 pts | 7.9% |
| 190 pts to 217 pts | 3.5% |
| 244 pts to 271 pts | 1.2% |
Published model read · VA-01 House forecast
Bars illustrate the model's margin range · teal = the side where the Republican wins · the 44.4% headline also includes the baseline blend and calibration · dashed line = a tied race
On the record: R +12.8 pts 2024 certified result · House Clerk 2024 federal election statistics
R +0.6 pts is the projected margin; 80% of simulated outcomes land within ±139.2 pts of it.MethodologyInternal audit sheetStudent templateAnswer keyUpdated Sep 5, 2026